Play video: Illusion of Control: Orientation Instead of Certainty

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Complexity arises faster than you might think: with just ten numbers, there are already 3.6 million possible orders. In trading, market behavior, your own setup, emotions and your form on the day interact. A system like that cannot be controlled in a linear way, with clear causes and effects.

This fits the image that the brain is not a blender. We often look for an instruction manual with buttons so that we are not angry but alert and calm. Anyone who treats themselves like an uncomplicated system should not be surprised when the result differs from what they hoped for.

According to the predictive mind model, the brain can be described as a prediction machine: it serves primarily to secure survival and constantly uses predictions for it. It reacts to deviations and draws on experiences, patterns and also bodily experiences. Behind this there is a second function: the brain wants to expand our world through learning, adaptation, curiosity and exploration.

If reality does not match the expectation, this model speaks of a prediction errorA prediction error: reality does not match the brain's expectation. It is normal at first and drives learning and adaptation.. It triggers an inner excitation (arousalThe inner excitation a prediction error triggers. It often shows up as an emotional reaction.), often an emotional reaction. An emotion is thus a response to the difference between expectation and reality, and that is not a problem at first. The prediction error drives learning and adaptation. It becomes dangerous when we respond to it with stress.

When does the system tip over? When you do not know what you feel, or when you ignore and suppress the message from your body. “Emotions are helpers in fulfilling needs. When you feel an emotion, there is a reason for it,” says Marnie Aramruck. If an emotion is permanently overridden, it can end in overwhelm and loss of control. The normal cognitive prediction error then turns into an emotional conflict, and in trading that becomes a trap.

One example is fear of an exam the next day. The fear wants to create certainty, and its tactic can be to keep studying. Without fear, you might go into the exam less prepared. So a healthy fear has a task.

When fear is overridden, perception narrows, as in the Stone Age when a saber-toothed tiger appears: all the energy flows into safety. In trading, this changes the view of the market, and tunnel visionUnder stress, perception narrows. In trading, this changes the view of the market. arises. We then get certainty through thoughts that replace perception: “The market has to rise now” or “This trade has to work now”.

PrimingWhat you experienced beforehand, such as a losing trade, colors the next moment. adds to this: what you experienced beforehand, such as a losing trade, you carry into the next moment and it colors it. Anyone who knows this will recognize it more easily in the next trading hours.

A chart example: on the 5-second chart, a heatmap with Level of Interest shows a bull zone, the idea is a long trade at an important level, with an entry after a small sideways phase. Instead, the market reacts immediately with a V-shaped reversal, without a range. The setup does not form, you do not get into the trade and, in the unfavorable case, you jump in afterward. After the larger move, doubts arise about whether you should have traded after all. That is how the prediction error shows up in trading: the reaction is the answer to a prediction that was held on to. What matters is the change of perspective. Anyone who knows that the brain is complex and the market uncertain, and does not demand certainty from the market, deals with such moments differently.

There is structure in trading, but no certainty about how a trade will turn out. The basis is a statistically founded system with backtesting and forward testing, as well as risk management with clear position sizes, stops, profit targets and predefined entries and exits. That says nothing about the individual outcome, but it gives orientation and limits risk. Planning and execution are two different things.

What cannot be controlled is whether a trade turns out positive, how the market reacts and the spontaneous emotional reaction, at least if you are not prepared. Emotions cannot really be controlled, but their intensity can be regulated.

Three illusions of control stand out: the attempt to suppress emotions instead of navigating them, busyness mistaken for self-efficacyThe experience of being able to make something happen yourself. To be set apart from blind busyness, which is only a reaction., and the false sense of security with which people avoid uncertainty. Typical attempts at control belong here: pushing nervousness away, staring at the running trade although an alert can be set at a price level, exiting early, adjusting or leaving it open longer in the hope that the market still turns. These are reactions to fear and not to the system. The thought “this trade has to work now” is also such an attempt, because in trading there are only probabilities and no certainties.

When control falls away, you need neither a new tool nor new rules, but orientation in the midst of uncertainty. System, risk management and rule set must be in place. What then decides is attitude.

The core image: between stimulus and response there is a space, and that is where your freedom begins. The stimulus is, for example, that the market runs through without the expected sideways phase. The reaction can be jumping in afterward or the later agonizing. In the space in between, four things matter: perception, acceptance, empathy and adaptation. Perception means recognizing what is really happening and whether you currently have tunnel vision. Acceptance means that the idea can be right while the setup is not. Adaptation concerns the view of the market and the emotional reaction. Empathy means compassion with yourself, that is, meeting yourself with goodwill and not condemning yourself. All of this can be trained, and it helps decide whether the mouse click at the end is a resilient or a headless reaction.

You hold this space not with control but with a connection to yourself, called self-anchoring. “This is where MindCrafting begins: not control but orientation. That is the attitude we teach,” says Marnie Aramruck.

In the model, the brain implements its strategy through emotions, as feedback loops. They show whether a prediction was fulfilled. If it was, pleasant emotions such as joy or gratitude arise. If it was not, for example with fear, the question arises what you can do to gain more certainty. If the prediction error tips into stress, the data have not been read.

Emotion and feeling should be told apart: emotions run unconsciously and translate into bodily sensations. The body is the bridge between mind and emotion. Heartbeat, stomach, muscle tone or sweat can serve as an early warning system, and everyone reacts to them differently.

The widespread maxim “Trade like a machine” has a counterpart in “Trade like MindCrafter”. “I find it really terrible that it is always said: trade like a machine. You are not a robot, and the market is not a robot either. Emotions are not mistakes, they are data,” says Marnie Aramruck. Anyone who does not allow certain emotions cuts themselves off from their energy, from their feedback as a navigation system and from possible coping strategies. One example is anger, whose bright side is self-efficacy. Anyone who does not allow it may find it harder to experience themselves as self-effective and may feel less pride. Anyone who suppresses emotions over a long time may find that pressure builds up, as in a pressure cooker.

Emotional flexibility means being able to switch between states, like babies who are screaming one moment and laughing the next. Adults have often unlearned this. An everyday example: anyone who gets angry in a traffic jam on the way to a meeting can shift their focus or, if it keeps happening, change the strategy and take the train, for example.

A few questions are worth asking beforehand: what do you currently do to calm yourself, and does it really help? A stress ball during the session can make sense, because emotions do not immediately mean a call to action. If it does not help, a breathing exercise could work. Also: where in your life outside trading are you good at navigating instead of controlling, and what can you transfer from it? Small things are a good way to practice impulse control, such as rules for social media and messengers.

The space can be created at three points in time. Before the trade, you create awareness and do not go into the session too stressed. During trading, you recognize your early warning systems: which emotions come up for you, which block you, when do your hands get sweaty, what calms you? After trading, it is not about judging but about reflecting. Which strategies fit is individual: “It would be totally fatal to say: what works for me works for you. That does not work,” says Marnie Aramruck.

When the space is hard to find, there are three paths. First, one-to-one coaching to resolve blocks, where it is possible to distinguish whether the block lies on the cognitive, emotional or action level. Second, a resilience training that trains exactly these strategies. Third, an open, honest community in which the point is not the biggest trade but questions such as: how do I feel right now, what went wrong, have I tested my system, where is the lever?

• Control exists in planning, not in trading itself. System, risk management and rules are the structure. The individual outcome and the market's reaction remain uncertain.
• Emotions are data. An emotion shows a difference between expectation and reality. Anyone who notices it early can regulate it instead of being overrun by it.
• The mistake lies in how you deal with it, not in the feeling. Tunnel vision, priming and the thought “it has to work now” color perception.
• Between stimulus and response there is a space. Perception, acceptance, empathy with yourself and adaptation can be trained, before, during and after the trade.

“Trading does not begin with control, but with the ability to guide yourself through uncertainty. Because between what you plan and what you do lies not weakness but a world that wants to be navigated.”

Marnie Aramruck in the closing words of the webinar (translated from German)

The webinar ran on January 15, 2026 on the YouTube channel of ATAS Deutschland, with questions and answers in the chat. It is held in German; on YouTube, you can switch on YouTube's subtitle translation. ATAS is a trading platform for order flow analysis. Marnie Aramruck is the founder of TradeNeon and works as a master emotion coach and resilience trainer on trading psychology. You can find all appearances of Marnie and Oliver on our guest appearances page.