Learning day trading: which path is right?

Learning day trading: which path is right?

How to read the stock market

How to read the stock market


Swing Trading Alongside Work: Time, Capital and Risk

Swing Trading Alongside Work: Time, Capital and Risk

A Buddha figure wearing headphones sits at a desk with a laptop and coffee in the evening, with a lit city beyond.
Swing TradingFoundations

Trading that fits your life

Swing trading can fit around a job when you have a defined routine. Here is how the method works, what time and capital the TradeNeon programme calls for, and where the risks remain.

A daily routine gives the market a place in your schedule.Image: TradeNeon

After a day at work, you may have time to check the market but not to watch every price change. That does not rule out trading. It changes the type of trading that may fit your schedule.

Swing trading looks for moves that can develop over several days or weeks. You prepare a plan, define the risk and check your positions at regular times. It needs attention and judgment, but it does not require you to watch a screen throughout the session.

01

What swing trading means

A swing trader typically holds a position for days or weeks. The aim is to take part in a medium-term move. Day traders generally close positions within the same session. Neither holding period makes a trade inherently better.

Many swing traders study four-hour and daily charts. They may combine support and resistance, trend structure or Fibonacci levels with a risk–reward ratioThe potential gain compared with the planned loss on a trade. A potential gain of USD 100 against a planned loss of USD 50 gives a ratio of 2:1; it says nothing about the chance of either outcome.. The position size and exit rule matter as much as the setup.

The comparison below describes typical working rhythms. The exact frequency and chart interval depend on the system.

CriterionDay TradingSwing Trading
Holding periodMinutes to hoursDays to weeks
Analysis intervalOne to 15 minutesFour-hour to daily chart
Trading frequencySeveral trades per dayFewer trades per week
Managing open positionsDuring the trading sessionAt defined daily times

A longer holding period gives you more choice over when to analyse the market. It also means positions remain exposed while you are away, so your risk rules must be set before entry.

02

How it fits around a job

A fixed routine matters more than constant attention. You can review markets and prepare a watchlist, then manage positions and new setups in a daily time slot. Alerts can bring something to your attention, but they do not replace the decision.

Not watching every tick can reduce the temptation to react to small moves. It does not remove emotional pressure: a trade can move against you overnight, and waiting for a setup still takes discipline.

Swing trading uses less screen time than day trading, but it requires the same care with analysis, position size and risk.

The schedule is only useful if you can give it your full attention. A rushed decision between meetings is more likely to break the rules you set when you prepared the trade.

03

Time, capital and returns

The current TradeNeon swing trading programme gives concrete figures for its six systems. The programme itself is currently offered in German.

Daily routine
30 min
for all six systems; learning time comes on top
Starting capital
EUR 3,000
for stock systems; options systems from EUR 10,000
Returns
10–40 %
an ambitious annual-average orientation after the learning year, never a promise

Time. TradeNeon budgets about 30 minutes per day for the routine across its six systems. A single system may take less. During the first months, videos, practice, live sessions and learning the software add time. The half-hour figure is not the total time needed to learn trading.

Capital. TradeNeon states starting capital of EUR 3,000 for the stock systems and EUR 10,000 for the options systems. That capital must not be needed for living costs. You still set a position size and loss limit for every trade.

Returns. TradeNeon describes 10–40% average annual return as an ambitious orientation from its practice for well-trained traders after the learning year, applying tested systems and risk rules consistently. It is not a forecast for an individual reader. Losses, including loss years, are possible. The first year is for learning without a return expectation. See the real-money performance and its context.

Keep the numbers in context

Results depend on the system, market conditions and execution. Neither a historical result nor a risk rule guarantees a future return.

04

Approaches used in swing trading

Different systems look at different markets and data. That can spread the sources of risk, but it does not make every system profitable in every market phase.

Commodity data and market positioning

For some commodity setups, traders combine chart structure with positioning, seasonality and the shape of the futures curve. CoT dataWeekly aggregated positioning reports published by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission from positions reported by firms. They describe positioning, not a stand-alone entry signal. show how groups of market participants are positioned. The CFTC publishes the reports. They need interpretation and chart confirmation.

A futures curveThe prices of futures contracts for the same underlying market across different expiry months. compares contract prices across expiries. TradeNeon uses Futures Insights to prepare several data sets for analysis; the decision remains with the trader.

Fibonacci zones

Some systems watch for a correction within a larger move and use Fibonacci retracements alongside volume and other evidence to mark possible zones. A retracement level does not predict a reversal. It is only one part of a planned setup.

Historical silver futures chart showing Fibonacci retracements and a volume profile.
Historical chart example. Fibonacci zones and a volume profile in silver futures; not a current trade recommendation.

Options and premium risk

Options can be used in rule-based trading systems. An optionA time-limited contract: the buyer acquires a right for a premium, while the seller takes on a contractual obligation. The two sides carry different risks. premium is not predictable income. Market moves, expiry and execution can create losses, and a collected premium does not automatically cap the loss.

TradeNeon currently describes the Opening Put in its Lab of Trades Argon module. It is a different system from the Income Trade discussed in the original German article. Check each system's own rules and availability before comparing them.

Stock momentum

A stock-momentum approach looks for shares outperforming a broader market and checks whether the move fits its trend and risk rules. MomentumThe tendency for a price move to continue for a time. It can reverse and is not a prediction by itself. can help rank candidates, but strength in the recent past does not ensure further gains.

05

The practical conclusion

Swing trading can sit alongside work when you can make room for a consistent routine and accept that positions stay open between checks. It is a different rhythm from day trading, not a shortcut around learning or risk.

Start with the system's rules, understand the capital it needs, and plan what you will do when a trade moves against you. The goal is to make deliberate decisions rather than to fill every available minute with trading.

Simon Reichert

Frequently asked questions
What is swing trading?

It is an approach that typically holds positions for days or weeks to take part in medium-term market moves. The holding period does not remove market risk.

Can I swing trade alongside a job?

It can fit around work if you can follow a defined daily routine and give decisions your attention. TradeNeon budgets about 30 minutes per day for its six systems, with extra learning time during the programme.

How much capital do I need?

TradeNeon states starting capital of EUR 3,000 for its stock systems and EUR 10,000 for its options systems. Use only capital you can afford to lose.

What returns can I expect?

Do not treat a published range as a personal expectation. TradeNeon's 10–40% annual-average range is an ambitious orientation for trained traders after the learning year, not a guarantee. Losses remain possible.

What is different from day trading?

Day trading generally closes trades within one session and requires attention during that session. Swing trading holds positions longer and uses planned checks, while accepting overnight exposure.

Check the market context
Market Radar brings 15 indicators into one view of the broader stock-market environment. Use it to inform your own analysis, not as a trading signal.
Explore Market Radar
Market Radar chameleon with red, yellow and green light across its head
Simon Reichert, swing trading coach at TradeNeon
Simon Reichert
Swing trading coach · TradeNeon
Simon Reichert coaches swing trading at TradeNeon. His work focuses on market context, position risk and the psychology behind trading decisions.
Can Trading Make You Rich? Myth Versus Reality

Can Trading Make You Rich? Myth Versus Reality

A man in a dark suit looks directly at the camera and holds an open briefcase of banknotes; a luxury car stands behind him.
TradingPerspective

Can trading make you rich? Do the maths

Luxury cars, faraway places and stories of fast profits are everywhere in trading content. They are not a useful planning baseline. This article looks at the arithmetic behind the promise, the costs that get left out and the choices a trader actually has.

The briefcase is the promise; the numbers behind it are what matter.Image: TradeNeon

Not a sprint.
A skill to develop.
Four myths, the real costs and three approaches to compare.
Show contents

The promise speaks to a real wish: more choice over your time and money. But the visible end of somebody else’s trading journey tells you little about the capital, practice, setbacks or risk behind it.

You do not have to give up the ambition. You do need to see the full calculation before deciding whether the path fits your life.

The point of this article

Trading outcomes come from a process under uncertainty. Capital, risk, costs, time and your actual results all belong in the same calculation.

01

Four common myths

Trading stories often promise a shortcut where the reality is a long learning curve. These four claims are worth testing before you stake capital on them.

Myth 1: A small account becomes a fortune quickly

A vintage slot machine with blank reels in a dark room, with abstract light trails behind it.

Imagine an exceptional 10% returnAn investment gain or loss relative to the capital invested, usually expressed as a percentage. in one month on EUR 1,000. That is EUR 100 before costs and tax. The percentage looks impressive; the amount is nowhere near a living income. Nor is 10% per month a sensible recurring assumption.

Position size is the missing part of many fast-wealth stories. As an illustration, 1% account risk on EUR 1,000 is EUR 10 per trade. That is an example, not a universal rule. Increasing the size simply to speed up gains also increases the possible loss.

A small account can be a place to practise decision-making with real stakes, provided the money is genuinely disposable. It is not a shortcut to income. For a practical risk example, read our position sizing guide.

Myth 2: Trading is passive income

Trading requires preparation, analysis, decisions and review. Market conditions and execution can change. Even semi-automated tools leave the trading decision and risk with the trader. Treating trading as income that appears without work hides the time and losses involved.

Myth 3: One perfect strategy exists

Four anonymous silhouettes consider an empty chalice on a pedestal in a dark room.

No indicator or trading system works in every market phase. A method may have a statistical advantage under defined conditions, but those conditions and the results need continued scrutiny. Learning the rules also means learning when their assumptions no longer hold.

Myth 4: An account can scale without limit

The percentage may stay the same as an account grows, but the amount at stake does not. A 10% loss is USD 1,000 on USD 10,000, USD 10,000 on USD 100,000 and USD 100,000 on USD 1 million. The psychological burden can change the way a person follows their own rules.

Losses also create a mathematical hurdle: after a 20% fall, the remaining balance needs a 25% gain to recover; after 50%, it needs 100%; after 80%, it needs 400%. None of these recoveries is assured.

−20% → +25%
gain needed on the remaining balance
−50% → +100%
the remaining balance must double
−80% → +400%
five times the remaining balance

One possible response is to define loss limits and withdrawal rules before trading. The right limits depend on your finances and risk tolerance.

02

What trading costs before it earns anything

The headline return is not the amount you keep. Put the other side of the ledger on the page before making a plan.

  • Disposable capital. Money needed for living costs does not belong in a trading account. TradeNeon currently cites EUR 5,000 as a starting point for a personal day trading account.
  • Platform and market data. Costs depend on the market, brokerAn intermediary through which you place buy and sell orders in financial markets. and tools. The German-language day trading programme includes LOI ES for twelve months; some systems require separate data feeds.
  • Hardware and connection. Reliability matters more than a wall of screens. Check the requirements of the platform you choose.
  • Time. Preparation, learning, monitoring and review have a real opportunity cost.
Tax belongs in the calculation

Tax treatment depends on your residence, instruments and circumstances. A qualified tax adviser can assess your case. This article does not provide tax advice.

03

Three approaches with different demands

Day trading, swing trading and options each use time and capital differently. None guarantees a positive result.

The intensive route
Day trading
Time and attention · own account from EUR 5,000
The planned route
Swing trading
Patience and capital · stock systems from EUR 3,000
The complex route
Options
Learning time · distinct contractual risks

Day trading: attention within a session

Day traders generally open and close positions in the same session. That demands attention during the trading window, practice and a clear risk process. TradeNeon’s current German-language day trading programme cites EUR 5,000 of disposable capital for a personal account. Micro futuresStandardised contracts with defined terms and an expiry date. Micro versions have a smaller contract value. can allow finer position sizing, but losses can still be substantial.

Some proprietary trading firms offer account-based models. The advertised account size is not the amount you can lose. Their evaluation, fee, loss and payout rules matter more than the headline number.

Swing trading: planned checks over days or weeks

Swing trades remain open beyond a single session. A routine can fit around work, but overnight exposure remains. TradeNeon’s current German-language swing trading programme cites starting capital of EUR 3,000 for stock systems and EUR 10,000 for options systems. These are programme figures, not a general rule for every strategy.

Options: more structures and more obligations

OptionsTime-limited contracts: buyers acquire a right for a premium; sellers accept an obligation. Each side has different risks. can be used for directional positions, defined strategies or hedging. Selling an option may bring in a premium, but the premium is not predictable income and does not automatically cap the loss. You need to understand time value, implied volatilityThe expected future price movement implied by an option's market price. It influences the option's value. and margin before taking on these risks.

The approach that fits you depends on time, capital, experience and risk tolerance. Our guide to day trading paths compares instruments and learning routes.

04

What “rich” means to you

Behind the word there is often a wish for more choice, not a particular account balance. It helps to define what choice you want and what you can afford to risk in pursuit of it.

Trading will not change your life overnight. Whether it contributes to greater financial freedom remains uncertain and depends on capital, losses, costs and your actual results. You can still develop the skill of checking decisions and limiting risk.

See the real account, including the losses
TradeNeon publishes the performance of an account used for the systems it teaches. Past results are not a forecast for your account.
View real-money performance

The TradeNeon day trading and swing trading programmes are currently offered in German. Their German-language Academy overview gives the current details; this article is for general education.

Frequently asked questions
Can trading make you rich quickly?

It is not a reasonable planning assumption. A small account produces a small cash amount even at an exceptional percentage return, while larger positions increase potential losses.

Is trading passive income?

No. It requires preparation, decisions, monitoring and risk control. Semi-automated tools do not remove the trader’s responsibility.

Does one perfect strategy exist?

No method works in every market phase. Even a method with a statistical advantage needs ongoing review.

Why do losses require larger gains to recover?

After a 50% loss, the remaining balance must gain 100% to return to its starting value. After an 80% loss, it needs a 400% gain.

What does trading cost?

It uses disposable capital and time; platform, data, broker and hardware costs depend on your chosen approach.

How much capital do I need?

TradeNeon currently cites EUR 5,000 for a personal day trading account. In its swing trading programme, stock systems start from EUR 3,000 and options systems from EUR 10,000. These are programme figures, not universal thresholds.

Simon Reichert
Simon Reichert
Swing trading coach · TradeNeon
Simon Reichert coaches swing trading at TradeNeon. His work focuses on market context, position risk and the psychology behind trading decisions.
Position Sizing and Risk Management in Trading

Position Sizing and Risk Management in Trading

Metal balance scale on a trading desk, with contract weights on one pan and a red risk weight on the other
Trading Practical guide

It's not the entry — it's the position size

What do you think of first when you consider success factors in trading? Most people name the perfect entry, the right stop or a price target. Position size is often overlooked, even though it determines how strongly each trade affects your account.

The position size on one side, the risk limit on the other.Image: TradeNeon

Position size determines how much capital you put at risk on each trade and how strongly a price move affects your account. That makes it central to risk management. If you ignore it or calculate it incorrectly, you expose your account to avoidable swings.

Here is how to calculate it, what changes when you trade through a prop firm, and which common mistakes to avoid. The aim is a calculation you can make before placing each order.

1 %
Reference risk per trade — kept consistent across trades
2 contracts
The result with $100 of risk and a 10-point stop in a Micro E-mini future
1,000 USD
Illustrative loss limit for an account advertised as $25,000
The point

Position size is one part of the trade you can choose in advance. You do not control the market; you can decide how much of your account to expose to one idea.

01

The formula and its inputs

The calculation fits on one line:

Number of contracts = (account balance × risk percentage) ÷ (stop distance × point value per contract)

You need four inputs before you place an order:

  • Account balance — your current balance, not an earlier peak.
  • Risk percentage — the share of capital you are willing to risk on one trade.
  • Stop distance — the distance between entry and stop, measured in points, ticksA tick is the smallest possible change that the price of a future can make. The E-mini future on the S&P 500 index with the ticker symbol ES, for example, has a tick size of 0.25. In this case, 4 ticks would be 1 point. or pipsA pip is the smallest common price change of a currency pair in forex trading. For most pairs, that is the fourth decimal place..
  • Point or pip value per contract or lot — the cash value of one unit of stop distance. Both values must use the same unit.
Example

With a $10,000 account and a 1% limit, your planned risk is $100 per trade. Keeping that limit consistent prevents one unusually large position from dominating your results.

What percentage is appropriate?

Our reference point is 1% per trade. Someone starting out may prefer 0.5% to allow for more losing trades. A rate well above 2% can make a normal losing streak much harder to absorb.

Consistency matters more than the exact percentage. Pick a limit you can apply across many trades instead of changing it with your mood.

02

From stop distance to contract count

How many contracts does that give you? You now need the stop distance. There are two ways to set it.

Option A
Fixed stop
Always use the same distance, such as 10 points. It is easy to calculate but inflexible: the market does not adjust to your preferred number. It is not a sound default.
Option B
Dynamic stop
Based on support and resistance zonesSupport and resistance are price areas where a move has repeatedly stopped or reversed in the past. A support lies below the current price, a resistance above it. In practice they are rarely exact lines, more like zones. and current volatility. This can fit the market better, but calls for experience and a new calculation on each trade.
Fixed stop loss: a horizontal red stop line beneath candlesticks on a dark trading monitor
Fixed stop. The same distance regardless of current market conditions.
Dynamic stop loss: a red line rising in steps beneath successive higher price lows on a trading monitor
Dynamic stop. Derived from price action and recalculated for each trade.

For illustration, keep the fixed stop at 10 points. With the $100 risk budget above, that gives:

$100 ÷ 10 points = $10 risk per point Your contract count must fit within this amount.

A futures example

The E-mini futureA future is a standardized forward contract that obligates the trading partners to a transaction in the future. Futures also have an expiration date. Futures belong to the group of derivatives. on the S&P 500 (ES) moves $50 per index point. With a $10,000 account and a 10-point stop, one ES contract would risk $500, far above the $100 target. The Micro E-mini (MES) is one tenth of that size, at $5 per point.

With $10 of risk per point and $5 per point for each MES, $10 ÷ $5 gives 2 MES contracts. That completes the calculation: balance, risk limit, stop distance and contract point value lead to the number of contracts.

For ES and MES, try your figures in the position size calculator. Enter the stop distance in ticks; four ES or MES ticks equal one index point.

Recalculate whenever the stop distance changes. The same principle works in other markets. In forexForex stands for “Foreign Exchange”; it refers to interbank trading. On the Forex markets, currencies are traded. Trading does not take place via the stock exchange, but directly between banks and brokers. trading, pip value replaces point value and the position is measured in lotsThe lot is the trading unit in forex trading — it indicates how many units of the base currency a position covers. A standard lot corresponds to 100,000 units, a mini lot to 10,000, and a micro lot to 1,000..

03

Prop trading: the usable loss limit

When you trade your own money, you can start from your account balance. With a prop-firm programme — prop tradingIn prop trading, you do not trade with your own money but with the capital of a provider — a so-called prop firm. Usually, you first prove your trading ability in an evaluation phase and then receive an account whose profits are shared between you and the provider. What matters are the rules of the respective provider: a maximum total loss and often a daily loss limit. — the applicable limits change your calculation. A daily loss cap may require a smaller position so that one bad day does not end the programme.

When comparing providers, check their current contract terms, loss limits and regulatory status yourself. Our 2024 comparison is historical context, not a current provider recommendation.

The trap in the account name

A hypothetical example shows the difference: a programme advertised as a $25,000 account might allow a maximum loss of $1,000, while a $50,000 programme might allow $1,500. These are illustrative figures, not current provider terms. Your risk budget depends on the actual loss limit, daily cap and calculation rules. Reaching a limit ends participation in many programmes.

Large metal account frame holding a small red loss buffer on a trading desk, illustrating prop-account limits
Two figures per account. The advertised account size and the permitted loss limit are different.

The practical lesson: For sizing risk, the available loss limit matters more than the figure in the account name. Using $25,000 or $50,000 as the risk base can lead you to breach the programme limits quickly.

Reality check: how much can you risk?

Take the hypothetical $25,000 account with a $1,000 maximum loss. One percent of the advertised $25,000 would be $250 per trade. Four full losses would consume the assumed $1,000 limit; fees and additional rules could make that happen sooner.

That may be a risk some people accept in an evaluation, but it is a poor habit to carry into trading your own capital. A handful of trades is too small a sample from which to draw conclusions about performance.

Rule of thumb

Size your prop-firm risk budget against the loss limit actually available and check daily caps and fees. In the hypothetical example, 1% of a $1,000 maximum loss is $10 per trade.

With a $10 budget and one MES contract worth $5 per index point, the arithmetic allows a stop of only two points before fees or slippage. If a market-based stop does not fit that budget, the position is too large for this trade. Do not raise your risk limit just to force the trade. We also looked at the gap between expectations and arithmetic in “Can trading make you rich?” (German-language Academy article) .

04

Three risk-management mistakes

The maths is straightforward, but traders often stumble over the same three decisions. We also discuss them in our article on common trading mistakes .

Mistake 1: a fixed contract count instead of adjusting to risk

Keeping the same number of contracts regardless of account size or stop distance means that some trades risk far more than others.

How to avoid it: Recalculate position size for each trade. Start with your stop distance, not a favourite number of contracts.

Whole contracts cannot be divided indefinitely. If the smallest tradeable size exceeds the risk limit you set, skip the trade or use a smaller instrument. Your limit is a ceiling, not a target to exceed.

Mistake 2: moving the stop to fit your desired size

A trader may place a stop too close to the entry to make a chosen contract count appear to fit the risk percentage, rather than placing it beyond a meaningful support or resistance zone.

That is a sign that the position is too large. Normal price movement can then trigger the stop and undermine the purpose of the risk plan.

How to avoid it: Set a market-based stop first, then adjust position size. Never reverse that order.

Mistake 3: increasing size after a winning streak

After several wins, it can feel natural to increase size aggressively. A normal losing streak can then give back much of the earlier gain.

How to avoid it: Keep the risk rule consistent. Reassess it when the account balance has changed sustainably, not because of excitement after a few good trades.

Position sizing is a practical part of risk management. Applying it consistently can limit the effect of a single trade on your account and help you stay in the game long enough to improve.

Take a moment to calculate position size before each trade. With practice, it becomes a short routine.

Glad you are here.

Frequently asked questions
Why does position size matter in trading?

It determines how much capital you risk on each trade. Even a good strategy can produce large losses when the position is too big.

How much of my account should I risk per trade?

We use 1% as a reference point; beginners may choose 0.5%. A higher rate makes losing streaks harder to absorb. What matters is choosing a limit and applying it consistently.

How do I calculate position size for futures and forex?

Divide your cash risk budget by stop distance multiplied by the cash value of each point, tick or pip per contract or lot. Keep the distance and value in matching units.

Do I need to recalculate for each trade?

Yes, when your stop distance or account balance changes. That keeps your planned risk consistent.

What changes when trading through a prop firm?

Use the loss limit actually available, not the account size in the programme name, and check daily caps and drawdown rules.

Should I increase size after a winning streak?

Not simply because of recent wins. Reassess your risk plan only when your account and circumstances have changed sustainably.

Oliver Sparing, Head of Trading at TradeNeon
Oliver Sparing
Founder & Head of Trading · TradeNeon
Hamburg → London → Hamburg → Dubai
Oliver Sparing is the founder and Head of Trading at TradeNeon. He has worked with financial markets for more than 15 years and supports traders and investors as they develop market understanding and independence. His analysis makes complex market moves easier to follow.
COT Data in Trading: How to Read Positioning

COT Data in Trading: How to Read Positioning

Three anonymous figures with object heads arrange unlabelled position tiles on a table.
Swing tradingMarket analysis

COT data in trading: Reading positioning

Who holds long and short positions in the futures market? The weekly Commitments of Traders report offers a partial view. It reveals neither any individual trader's motive nor the next price move. Read in context, it can help you understand positioning and the wider market.

The figures represent trader groups; the tiles represent their reported positions.Image: TradeNeon

When you analyse a futuresStandardised contracts with defined underlying market, quantity, quality and expiry terms. market, you probably start with price. That makes sense, but price alone does not tell you how larger groups are positioned. The COT reportA weekly report from the US regulator CFTC showing open positions held by reportable trader groups in futures and options markets. adds that perspective.

People sometimes call it a glimpse into the cards held by major players. The metaphor has limits: the report aggregates positions at a past date. It does not reveal why an individual institution traded.

The main point

COT data provides market context. An extreme position can prompt further research; it is not a stand-alone entry trigger or a forecast.

01

What COT data actually shows

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes Commitments of Traders reports for markets with sufficient reportable positions. It measures open interestThe number of outstanding contracts in a futures or options market. It measures existing positions, not daily trading volume. and places reportable traders in groups based on their predominant business activity. Smaller positions appear only as a calculated remainder.

Tue
reference date for open positions
Fri
regular release, 3:30 p.m. US Eastern time
∞
no readout of an individual trader's motive

The time lag matters. A report read on Friday describes Tuesday's positions. This makes COT unsuitable for a seconds-based entry decision; it is more useful as medium-term context. The CFTC provides the reports free of charge.

Two views are common. The older Legacy Report separates Commercials, Non-Commercials and Non-Reportables. The Disaggregated Report divides positions in physical commodity markets more finely. The Legacy Report was not discontinued: both are still published.

02

Who is behind the groups?

The Disaggregated Report offers a more useful distinction than the blanket term “big players”. Classification describes a reporting trader's predominant business activity. It does not explain the purpose of every position.

PMPU

Producers, merchants, processors and users

Businesses connected to a physical commodity market. They may hedge price risk, but can have other motives. Their net position does not prove a correct price forecast.

Managed Money

Managed capital

Registered funds and asset managers, among others. Their positions may accompany trends. A large short position does not prove that a reversal is imminent or that a decline must continue.

Swap Dealers

Swap intermediaries

Their futures positions may reflect transactions with clients. This group is not automatically market-neutral.

Other groups

Other and Non-Reportables

Other Reportables cover a mixed set of larger traders. Positions below the reporting threshold are calculated as a remainder, not reported trader by trader.

HedgingOffsetting an existing or expected price exposure with another position. It does not remove every risk. is one possible reason to use a future. A company processing a commodity may hedge its input price. Labelling every PMPU position “smart money” reads more into the report than it contains.

03

How to read positioning

A net position is long contracts minus short contracts. On its own, the number says little. Compare it with the market's own history, open interest and the number of reporting traders. If positions shift while open interest falls, that is different from an influx of new positions.

1Check report and date

Which report type, market and Tuesday are you looking at?

2Compare relative positioning

How unusual is the figure across several years and market regimes?

3Add price and structure

Charts, seasonality and the futures curveThe prices of futures with different expiry dates, viewed together. Its shape can offer clues about supply, demand and carrying costs. provide more context.

4Apply your own trading rule

A separate setup must define entry, stop and position risk.

An extreme can last or become more extreme. The conclusion “everyone is already short, so price must rise” is especially dangerous. New traders can join, positions can grow, and other forces can push price lower.

04

Soybean meal: a historical example

The original Academy article examined soybean meal futures (ZM) in 2025 and what was then a high Managed Money short position relative to a ten-year range. That was a 2025 snapshot, not a statement about positioning or a trade in September 2026. Its screenshots show an older software interface, so they are not presented here as current market charts.

The method still has value: for a specified report date, record long and short positions, compare them with market history and look for counterarguments. A large short extreme may signal a one-sided market. It may equally sit inside an intact downtrend. Price structure, liquidity and your own plan must come before any entry.

What the example teaches

Ask “How unusual is this position for this market at this point in time?” rather than “What must price do next?”

05

COT data in a trading routine

COT can be especially useful where a market is liquid, has a meaningful history and includes groups with a clear economic role. In agricultural and energy markets, seasonality and physical demand raise further questions. That does not make those markets automatically tradable or produce a universal list of “best COT markets”.

You can analyse the raw data through the CFTC. Futures Insights presents three fundamentals—COT, seasonality and the futures curve—through five indicators across 26 markets. Check the product page for current feature availability. The tool organises data; the trading decision remains yours.

To put market analysis into a fuller process involving setups, risk limits and review, see TradeNeon's swing trading programme. The programme is currently offered in German.

Turn reports into market context
Explore how Futures Insights brings COT data, seasonality and the futures curve together for market analysis. It does not make a trade recommendation.
Explore Futures Insights
TradeNeon capybara mascot in a UFO illuminating a market
Frequently asked questions
When is COT data released?

The regular release is Friday at 3:30 p.m. US Eastern time and describes open positions as of Tuesday. Holidays or exceptional circumstances can change the schedule.

Is COT data an entry signal?

No. It describes past group positions. Entry timing, price and risk must come from your own method.

Was the Legacy Report discontinued?

No. The CFTC still publishes both Legacy and Disaggregated reports. They group traders differently.

Does it show what a particular major trader plans to do?

No. It shows aggregated positions and categories, not the intention or strategy of an individual participant.

Simon Reichert
Simon Reichert
Swing trading coach · TradeNeon
Simon Reichert coaches swing trading at TradeNeon. His focus is market context, position risk and the assessment of trading ideas.