Trading Archives

Can you really make a living from trading?

by Oliver Sparing | Oct 5, 2026 | Trading

You look up at the sky and imagine what your life could be like. Perhaps with more time for the things that matter to you, or a second source of income. Perhaps even with the opportunity to make a living from trading one day. But is what you want really possible?

Illustration.Image: TradeNeon

In this article

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What it means to make a living from trading Why learning can become a maze How to separate useful information from the noise How information becomes knowledge and skill How realistic expectations change your progress From a second income to a possible livelihood

What it means to make a living from trading

Yes, it is possible to earn money from trading and make a living from it. Perhaps you want to build an additional income first. Perhaps your long-term goal is to gradually reduce your working hours and eventually live entirely from trading. These are possibilities you can explore for yourself.

For your own path, it makes a difference whether you want to make your first profits, build capital or pay your regular expenses. A profitable trade shows that a single decision has earned money. To cover your living expenses, you need results that match those expenses after costs and, where applicable, taxes, while also allowing for weaker trading periods.

Your skills, the capital available to you and the time you can invest all matter. A small account needs to earn a much higher percentage returnThe gain from a financial product over a given period, expressed as a percentage. than a large one to produce the same amount of money. Assuming a high return does not reliably compensate for a lack of capital in everyday life.

This reality check gives your ambition a direction. You can identify what you already bring to the process and what you still want to develop. Perhaps your path begins with learning alongside your job and growing your own account. That turns a big goal into steps you can actually work on.

Why learning can become a maze

Getting started seems accessible today. You can find videos, podcasts, books and posts about almost every trading approach. One video explains day tradingOpening and closing positions within a single trading day.; the next promises a particularly effective indicator. Soon afterwards, you see someone showing profits made with AI. Everything seems to open up another possibility.

Your learning can then take a path that resembles a maze: you move from one strategy to the next before understanding its requirements. You become familiar with more technical terms, but cannot yet explain why you would enter a particular trade. Having watched a lot does not yet give you a direction for your own decisions.

A screenshot of a winning trade leaves important questions unanswered: How much capital was used? What losses came before it? What costs apply? Can you follow the rules behind the trade? Without this information, you have only a limited basis for assessing how the result relates to your own path.

YouTube can provide good explanations and practical insights. What matters is how you select and work through the content. Are you collecting more ideas, or developing an understanding you can test for yourself? This is where the path out of the maze begins.

How to separate useful information from the noise

You can recognise reliable information by being able to examine its basis and its limitations. Before adopting an approach, these questions can help:

Are sources, data and assumptions provided so that you can check them yourself?
Can you distinguish a substantiated statement from a personal opinion?
Are losses, costs and risks explained alongside possible profits?
Are the rules for entries, exits and position sizing clear?
Can you see whether someone earns money from a recommendation, for example through advertising or referral payments?

The European regulator ESMA identifies transparency about interests, separating facts from opinions and presenting risks fairly as important requirements for financial communication. As a reader, these points also give you practical criteria for choosing your sources. [1]

To begin with, you can focus on a few sources you can evaluate and one trading discipline. When you do not understand an explanation, write down the question and look for a specific answer. Your learning goal can then determine which information you need next.

Selection and learning develop together. You do not need to be an experienced trader to ask questions or recognise an unsupported claim. As your knowledge grows, you can assess more precisely which statements fit the markets, instruments and rules you want to learn about.

How information becomes knowledge and skill

You build knowledge when you understand connections and can explain them in your own words. In trading, that includes how your market works, the instruments you trade, order types, position sizing and risks. You should be able to explain why a setup fits your trading plan and under which conditions you would choose not to trade it.

Skill develops through practice and evaluation. A structured learning path might look like this:

You learn the fundamentals and formulate the rules of your approach so that you can explain them yourself.
You practise applying them in a demo account first and document your decisions, including mistakes.
You evaluate whether you followed the rules, what results you achieved and which assumptions you still need to examine.

A profit can result from a poorly justified decision. A loss can occur even when you follow your trading rules. It is therefore useful to assess the quality of your decision separately from the financial outcome. Demo trading helps you practise; execution, costs and managing real money can introduce additional demands later.

AI as a tool and a sparring partner

AI can support your learning. You can ask it to explain terms, work through questions to check your understanding or look for counterarguments to an assumption. You can also ask it to examine a trading rule you have written for ambiguities. Used this way, the tool helps you think more carefully about your own approach.

Trading with AI is not the holy grail, however. A fluent answer can be wrong, incomplete or out of date. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority describes AI as a tool for understanding and research and recommends checking information against its original sources. [2]

You can therefore use AI while you are learning. What matters is that you verify its answers and recognise unresolved questions. If you cannot yet assess the rules and risks of a suggested strategy, you need further foundations before using it to make a trading decision. An AI answer is not evidence that an approach is profitable.

Continue with a structured learning path

If you would like guidance along this path, the pages for the day trading programme and swing trading programme explain their content and structure. Both programmes and these linked pages are currently available in German.

Small groups leave room for your questions and feedback on your own trades.

For us, theory, practice and feedback belong together. That is what creates a sound learning path.

How realistic expectations change your progress

Your goal can be ambitious. To support your progress, it helps to separate your expectations for the learning phase from those for a future income. At the beginning, you can work on understanding the market, applying your rules consistently and evaluating your decisions in a way you can follow.

Imagine expecting to earn a fixed amount for your regular expenses in your very first month. If the profit does not materialise, every next trade could feel like something that has to work. After a loss, it may seem tempting to trade more or take more risk to recover it quickly. That expectation can create additional pressure.

You can assess your learning progress through different questions:

Can I explain my approach and its risks clearly?
Do I follow my rules even when there is no suitable setup or a trade loses?
Do I document my decisions in a way that helps me recognise mistakes and progress?

An evaluation can help you identify whether a losing period is part of the fluctuations of your approach or whether rules, execution or assumptions need reviewing. Good periods deserve the same scrutiny. A short winning streak alone is not a sound basis for your living expenses.

Give your learning phase a financial framework that fits your everyday life. Your job and savings can allow you to build knowledge and experience while your regular expenses remain covered. You can then measure progress through more than the amount earned in a single trading month.

From a second income to a possible livelihood

You can gradually develop the role trading plays in your life. A second source of income alongside your job is a worthwhile goal in its own right. You can start by learning, building your own capital from your income and examining how a trading routine fits into your daily life.

In swing tradingTrading price movements over a medium- to longer-term holding period., positions are held for days to weeks. Preparation and reviewing your rules can therefore be organised differently from trading within a single day. Day trading requires time for the trading session itself, as well as preparation and review. The right path also depends on when you can make that time available.

For an approach alongside your job, you can explore the swing trading programme. If you want to allocate more time to daily trading, the day trading programme offers the other training path. Consider the content and structure of each in relation to your daily life. Both programmes are currently delivered in German.

Keep the savings you need for living expenses separate from the capital you risk in trading. Losses can also substantially reduce your trading capital. In its guidance for US securities day trading, FINRA explicitly cautions against using funds needed for living expenses or important long-term goals as trading capital. [3]

Test your assumptions with the return calculator

How do starting capital, monthly savings and withdrawals interact? What changes when you adjust your assumed return or time horizon? In the return calculator, you can explore your own scenario and compare the swing trading and day trading tabs. The calculator is currently available in German.

The calculator shows results under the assumptions you enter. A desired income that is mathematically possible is not yet an income you have reliably earned. It is therefore particularly important to examine how your plan looks with weaker results and whether your savings and other income sources match your financial needs.

Prop trading or funded trader models can also offer a way to trade. Check whether trading takes place in a real or simulated account, which fees and loss limits apply and when payouts are possible. The advertised account size is not your freely available wealth. These models require a separate review of their contractual terms. [4]

If your actual results after costs match your expenses over a longer period and your financial protection is sound, you can consider changing your working hours. Weaker trading periods, taxes where applicable and the dependence of your income on markets remain part of that decision. Multiple sources of income can give you additional options.

You are allowed to imagine making a living from trading one day. The reality check shows you what you can work on along the way: develop a learning process you can follow, review your decisions and build capital. Your next step today can be to clarify your starting point and explore the training path that fits you.

Sources and context

Oliver Sparing

Founder & Head of Trading · TradeNeon

Oliver Sparing has been actively trading the financial markets since 2011. His professional roots lie in precious metals trading in Hamburg; in 2017 he learned at a London trading floor. At TradeNeon he leads the day trading and swing trading programmes and is responsible for the trading methodology, with a focus on order flow, market structure and fundamental market data. Level of Interest, Futures Insights and Lab of Trades grew out of this work. Platforms such as ATAS, Bookmap and WH SelfInvest regularly invite him as a guest. All guest appearances

This blog is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not provide investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell. Trading and investing in financial markets involve significant risks, including the loss of all invested capital. You make and remain responsible for your own decisions.

Learning day trading: which path is right?

by Oliver Sparing | Aug 19, 2026 | Day Trading

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Most people who come to us wanting to learn day trading don't arrive with open questions. They arrive with ready-made answers — from hearsay. This article opens doors instead of closing them.

Stocks, 0DTE options, futures: three paths that part at the same crossroads.Image: TradeNeon

Three paths.
An honest assessment.

Stocks, 0DTE options and futures — what each path can do, what it costs, and why CFDs are at best a stopover.

Show contents

The price nobody talks about The three paths CFDs and certificates: straight talk Manual or mechanical? Three questions for your direction

Contents

The price nobody talks about The three paths CFDs and certificates: straight talk Manual or mechanical? Three questions for your direction

One person has watched a futures scalper on YouTube and now wants to do exactly that. The next has heard about 0DTE options and is fired up. Others are convinced that retail traders can only trade CFDsCFDs are like a bet with the broker. CFDs are not traded on the exchange, but are priced based on exchange-traded securities and contracts such as stocks, futures or indices. anyway — because that's what the broker advertising around the football pitch offers.

These beliefs rarely rest on first-hand experience with all the paths. Mostly they rest on hearsay.

That's why this article doesn't drum a ready-made answer into you. It opens doors. We look at what day trading with stocks, with 0DTE options and with futuresA future is a standardized forward contract that obligates the trading partners to a transaction in the future. Accordingly, futures also have an expiration date. each has to offer. We talk about CFDs and certificates — and we'll be clear about them. Finally, we turn to the question that is becoming more and more important in modern day trading: trading manually with order flowOrder flow refers to the buying and selling of an exchange instrument as it happens in real time. In practice, this can be observed in the so-called order book, the order tape or the footprint chart., or following a rule-based approach?

3 paths

Stocks, 0DTE options and futures — each with its own price and its own character

23 hrs

How long the major futures markets are open each day

€5,000

Our guideline for starting with your own capital; contract choice and risk budget remain essential

What this is about

There's no "and the winner is" here. Which path suits you depends on three things: your time, your temperament and the instrument. This article gives you the groundwork to make that decision from your own understanding rather than from hearsay.

The price nobody talks about

Before we talk about instruments, we talk about the price. Not the price in euros — the price in time, energy and nerves.

With swing tradingSwing trading assumes medium- to long-term “swings,” that is, price movements, which traders try to trade profitably. Positions are held over a period of days to weeks, sometimes even months., you can do your analysis at the weekend, place your orders calmly and then let the position run. That fits alongside everything else.

With day tradingIn day trading, positions are opened and closed again within a single trading day., the maths is different. There are trading windows — specific phases of the day that matter. Around the US open. In the morning during the European session. Depending on the market and strategy, also during the US afternoon. In these windows you have to be present — focused and prepared. Not in passing between two meetings with one eye on your phone.

On top of that comes preparation and review: the day's economic calendar, your levels and scenarios in the morning, journaling and evaluation afterwards. Anyone who takes day trading seriously treats it like competitive sport — with training, competition and analysis. Not like a hobby on the side.

The second layer: psychology

Picture the situation concretely. You're sitting at your computer, you're in a position, and you watch your account balance rise and fall in real time. Every tick up feels good. Every tick down pulls the ground from under you a little. This is no longer an abstract number — it's a live feed straight into your nervous system.

This is where the mistakes come from that almost every beginner goes through:

The revenge trade. You've taken a loss and want to pay the market back right away — so you rush into the next trade, without a setup, purely out of frustration.
Overtrading. You're sitting in front of the screen, so something has to happen.
Taking profits too early, letting losses run too long. The pain of an open loss simply hits harder in real time.

All of this exists in swing trading too. In day trading, several decisions under pressure can follow in quick succession. How much strain that puts on you depends on your trading approach and how you handle stress.

Don't get us wrong

We're not trying to talk you out of day trading. We mention it because it's part of the truth — and because you can only learn the discipline it takes with realistic expectations. Day trading can be learned. Handling these emotions can be trained, with fixed processes, clear rules and routine. It's a solid craft with a real learning curve, not a fast track to fast money.

The three paths

Stocks: a new story every day

Trading stocks intraday is a major discipline, above all in the US. Every day there's movement somewhere — earnings, upgrades, news. Somewhere there's always a stock "in play": above-average volume, above-average movement, a concrete catalyst behind it.

That is the core of it. You don't trade just any stocks; every day you pick out the names where something is really happening. Without systematic screening you get lost among thousands of stocks. With a clean system you have a handful of candidates on the table every day.

Three things you need to know:

The time zones. Core trading hours at the NYSE run from 9:30 am to 4 pm New York time. In Germany, that usually means 3:30 to 10 pm local time. In the weeks between the different clock changes in the US and Europe, the session shifts to 2:30 to 9 pm in Germany. For some people with a day job that works well — for a parent, that very evening may be sacred.

The pattern day trader rule. Frequent day trading in margin accounts at FINRA member firms was subject to a $25,000 minimum equity requirement under the pattern day trader rule. New, risk-based intraday margin rules took effect on June 4, 2026, replacing that blanket threshold. However, brokers have until October 20, 2027, to transition and may continue applying the previous rules until then. Check which framework applies to your specific account. Under the new rules, you must still maintain sufficient margin for your positions.

Fragmentation. Stocks trade across many venues at the same time, some of them even away from the public exchanges. There is no single, complete picture of the trading here.

0DTE options: the Formula 1 of options trading

0DTE0DTE means “zero days to expiration”: options that expire on the same day.View Opening Put → stands for "zero days to expiration" — options that expire on the same day. The major US indices now have expirations for every trading day.

This is interesting from two directions.

As a seller you can benefit from time decayTime value is the part of an option's price above its intrinsic value — it pays for the time the option has left until expiration. Other things being equal, time value decreases as expiration approaches; at expiration it is zero. For option buyers, this time decay is a constant headwind; for sellers, it is the source of income.. One possible strategy is a defined-risk spread that profits if the index stays within a certain range until expiration. The potential loss depends on the specific position. Selling uncovered calls can expose you to unlimited losses. Cash-settled index options such as SPX do not create an overnight stock position at settlement. Physically settled equity or ETF options, however, can result in stock positions through exercise or assignment. Rapid price jumps and gapsWhen the closing price of a chart candle and the opening price of the next candle differ, a price gap arises between them. This price gap is called a gap and receives a great deal of attention, especially on daily candles. can also occur within a trading day. These strategies can be studied using rules: fixed entry times, clear criteria and realistic assumptions about costs and execution in the backtest.

As a buyer of a single call or put option, your loss on the option position is limited to the premium paid plus fees. You can lose the entire premium. With physical settlement, you must also consider the position that exercise can create.

The catch is called gammaGamma measures how much an option’s delta changes when the price of the underlying asset moves.. The closer an optionAn option is a contract granting its buyer the right to buy or sell an underlying asset at a set price by a set date.View Argon → is to expiration and the closer its strike is to the underlying price, the more quickly its delta can change. A 0DTE option can be worth several times its price within minutes — or practically worthless. Anyone who doesn't know the Greeks and doesn't understand how an option behaves on expiration day has no business here.

Futures: trading on a derivatives exchange

Futures have several structural features worth examining for day trading.

Market transparency. An exchange-traded futures contract gives you access to a central order bookAn order book shows the buy and sell orders available for display at an exchange. Executed trades are recorded in trade data. Hidden order quantities are not fully visible; the detail shown depends on the data feed. and data on executed exchange trades. With a suitable data feed, you can see displayed limit orders and actual traded volume. Hidden quantities, such as those in iceberg orders, are not fully visible; participants remain anonymous. These data provide the basis for order flow trading, volume profilesThe volume profile is an indicator that shows traders in their charting software how many transactions have taken place at a given price level., footprint chartsA footprint chart is a way of displaying market data that shows the executed buys and sells of a financial instrument in absolute numbers. It is used mainly in day trading but can also serve medium-term trading approaches. and order book analysis.
Liquidity. Tight spreadsThe bid is the highest price a potential buyer is currently willing to pay. The ask is the lowest price a potential seller currently accepts. The difference between bid and ask is called the spread., clean execution, open almost 23 hours a day. The European morning also offers tradable phases — you're not dependent on the US evening.
Accessibility. Micro E-mini contracts let you trade the same equity indices at one tenth of the corresponding E-mini contract size. For starting with your own capital, our guideline is an account of at least €5,000. Whether a position fits that account depends on the contract, stop distance, costs and risk budget. CME also offers E-nano contracts on four US equity indices at one tenth of the corresponding Micro E-mini size. Check availability with your broker.

One point belongs here: leverageMost brokers let you trade derivatives with a multiple of the balance you have deposited. This increases the impact of price changes on your account equity. Margin does not cap your potential loss.. A future is a leveraged instrument. How strongly price moves affect your account depends on your position size relative to account equity. A low margin requirement is not a measure of the maximum possible loss. In day trading especially, disciplined position sizing is non-negotiable.

CFDs and certificates: straight talk

Let's turn to CFDs and certificates, which are frequently offered as a way into short-term trading in German-speaking markets.

First the positive side: access couldn't be easier. An account in minutes, small minimum deposits, tiny position sizes, a platform in your own language. For the very first steps, that's fine for now.

The structural core point

A CFD is not an exchange-traded product. You're not trading on a market with other participants — you're entering into a contract with your broker. The broker sets the prices. The broker is your counterparty. Depending on the business model, that means: your loss can be the broker's gain.

An exchange-traded future is traded through the exchange and cleared through a central counterparty. Your broker provides access and charges fees. This structure differs from a direct CFD contract with the broker.

Compare the total costs as well: spreads, commissions and any additional fees. Their size depends on the instrument, provider and market conditions. With frequent trades, even small cost differences add up.

For volume analysis, the distinction matters: a CFD has no central exchange volume covering the entire CFD market. Your broker may display tick activity or its own trading volume, for example. You can supplement order flow analysis with exchange data for the relevant underlying asset or futures contract. Those data do not show the orders and executions in your CFD trading.

Certificates: one more layer

With certificates — knock-outs, warrants, factor certificates — another layer is added. These are debt securities issued by a bank, so you carry the issuer risk. The knock-out barrier is also a mechanism that works exclusively against you: if it's touched even briefly, your certificate is dead — even if the market turns in your direction immediately afterwards. With a future, you decide where your stop is. With a knock-out, the product decides for you.

Clear and without detours

CFDs can be a first point of contact. If you want to take day trading seriously, your path leads to real exchange-traded instruments. We would explicitly advise you against certificates.

Manual or mechanical?

Which brings us to the question that is perhaps more fundamental than the choice of instrument: how do you actually want to trade?

Path A

Manual, discretionary

You sit live in the market and read what is actually happening — order flow, volume profile, footprint. Trading as a craft. The strength: a real feel for the market. The price: a long learning curve, full screen time, the full psychological load.

Path B

Rule-based, mechanical

You decide in advance, calmly, at your desk. Fixed, objective rules, tested on historical data. The strength: a system has no fear, no frustration, no ambition. The price: the work shifts to development, testing and monitoring.

In its highest form, the manual path is order flow trading. In the volume profile you see at which price levels the big volume trades. In the footprint, whether buyers or sellers are currently aggressive. You can use these data to infer buying and selling pressure; they do not reveal the identity of the participants. It's comparable to a musician who has mastered their instrument. The full psychological load comes with it — that's no different even after many years of market experience.

Remember the psychology part from the beginning. The revenge trade, overtrading, taking profits too early — all of these mistakes can arise when making decisions under stress. A fixed rulebook moves some of those decisions into preparation. It only helps if you follow it during execution. Even with semi-automated execution, system selection, intervention and monitoring remain your responsibility.

Here too, honestly: this is not a cash machine you switch on and forget. It has its own pitfalls, above all overfitting: a strategy adjusted to the past for so long that the backtestIn a backtest, a trading strategy is applied to historical price data to check how it would have performed in the past. This gives first indications of hit rate, profit and risk, but it does not replace a test under real market conditions. looks beautiful, but which then collapses in the future because it memorised the past instead of a real pattern.

The exciting part: these two worlds don't exclude each other at all. A discretionary order flow trader benefits enormously from thinking statistically. A systems trader gets better by understanding how the market works under the hood.

On top of that comes a tool that is accelerating this development massively right now: artificial intelligence. It already helps with strategy development, with evaluating data, with testing ideas — at a pace that was unthinkable a few years ago. Anyone getting into trading today should have AI in their toolbox from the start. As a tool, not a miracle weapon.

Three questions for your direction

There's no "and the winner is" here. That was never the point. What you can take away instead are three questions.

Your time and the way you live. Can you — and do you want to — sit at the computer, truly focused, during the trading windows, regularly, over months and years? Then the path of the manual trader is open to you. If not, statistical systems may be the more honest path. More honest, in any case, than telling yourself you'll live as a full-time scalper when that doesn't fit your everyday life.
Your temperament. Are you one of those who want to be live in the action, read situations and make decisions — and are ready to train for the psychological toughness of this path? Or are you more the analyst who would rather build and test systems in peace and then let them execute with discipline? Both are legitimate, successful paths. But they are very different professions.
The instrument. Stocks with their daily stories. 0DTE options, whose risk depends on the position you choose. Futures with their transparency and the whole world of order flow. Each of these tools has its place — and CFDs have their role at best right at the start, as a brief stopover, not as a destination.

You may not know the answers to these questions yet. That's perfectly fine. That's exactly why the core message is: stay open. Don't commit too early. First get to know all the disciplines day trading has to offer — and then make your decision from your own understanding, not from hearsay.

Those who have learned the craft broadly can always specialise later. Those who set themselves in concrete on day one may block exactly the path that would actually have suited them.

If you take away one single thing, let it be this: day trading can be learned — but it's a craft that takes real effort, both technically and psychologically.

Glad you're here.

Day Trading Futures 0DTE options CFD Order flow Learning to trade

Oliver Sparing

Founder & Head of Trading · TradeNeon

Frequently asked questions

Which instrument is best for day trading?

There is no single best instrument. Stocks require systematic screening and suitable trading hours. With 0DTE options, risk depends on the position: a purchased option or defined-risk spread differs substantially from uncovered selling. Futures provide a central order book and data on executed exchange trades. Micro E-mini contracts allow smaller position increments. Your knowledge, available time and risk budget are decisive.

Are CFDs suitable for day trading?

CFDs can be a first point of contact. You enter into a contract with your broker; there is no central exchange volume for the entire CFD market. Exchange data for the underlying asset can supplement analysis but do not show your CFD trading. Compare spreads, commissions and other fees. For our training, we prefer exchange-traded futures; we advise against certificates such as knock-outs.

How much capital do I need to day trade futures?

For starting with your own capital, our guideline is an account of at least €5,000. This is not a universal minimum for every futures trade. Contract size, stop distance, costs and your risk budget must fit together. Micro E-mini contracts are one tenth the size of the corresponding E-mini contracts.

What are 0DTE options?

0DTE stands for zero days to expiration — options on their expiration day. As the buyer of a single option, you can lose the entire premium plus fees. With uncovered selling, losses can be substantially larger and, for calls, unlimited. For options near the money, delta can change particularly quickly close to expiration. You must also understand settlement and any resulting positions from exercise or assignment.

How much time does day trading really take?

More than screen time alone. You need focused trading windows that fit your market and strategy, for example around the US open or during the European session. NYSE core trading hours are 9:30 am to 4 pm New York time; the corresponding local time in Germany depends on the clock changes. Preparation, journaling and review take additional time.

Manual or rule-based trading — which is better?

The two approaches have different requirements. Manual order flow trading calls for market knowledge, screen time and decisions under pressure. A rule-based approach moves decisions into development and testing. It helps when you execute the rules consistently; semi-automated execution also requires monitoring. The two approaches can complement each other.

Sources for the factual background

How to read the stock market

by Oliver Sparing | Jul 11, 2026 | Swing Trading, Trading

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Seven in the morning, thirty open tabs, and still no clear picture? A consistent morning routine helps you organize information. Using Market Radar as an example, we explain how to assess the U.S. stock market systematically and where this type of analysis has its limits.

A market signal light between two chart panels makes the market state visible at a glance.Image: TradeNeon

Read the market
with a consistent routine.

Four common pitfalls and a structured market overview.

Show contents

Four pitfalls in market analysis A market snapshot, not a signal How Market Radar is built How to use Market Radar

Contents

Four pitfalls in market analysis A market snapshot, not a signal How Market Radar is built How to use Market Radar

You are preparing for your trading day. Charts, news and newsletters are open in front of you. But which information matters for your decision? A fixed sequence helps you compare market conditions with previous days instead of moving from one headline to the next.

indicators across four dimensions of the market

4 groups

Volatility · Trend · Fundamentals · Futures curve

1 overview

Context on the U.S. stock market to support your analysis

Definition

A morning analysis is a systematic assessment before you trade: you review selected indicators in a fixed order and record what has changed. This provides context for your decisions. It replaces neither a trading strategy nor your risk management.

Four pitfalls in market analysis

Alongside market risks, time pressure, expectations and emotions also influence your decisions. An unstructured analysis can leave you exposed to these four pitfalls:

Confirmation bias. You favor information that supports your existing view and give too little weight to evidence against it. This tendency is called confirmation bias.
Recency bias. Recent events can influence your assessment more than the evidence warrants. A single losing or winning day can distort your view of the longer-term picture.
Information overload. Multiple sources are useful only if you can put them in context. Conflicting or duplicated information can make decisions harder.
Inconsistency. If you use different criteria every day, your assessments become difficult to compare.

A consistent routine can help you notice these biases. Review the same criteria, actively look for opposing evidence and record your assessment. This does not automatically eliminate thinking errors. Read more about how emotions influence your decisions in our article on trading psychology.

A market snapshot, not a signal

Market Radar does not tell you whether to go long or short today. It combines different market data into an overall assessment. Its focus is the U.S. stock market, including the S&P 500, its market breadth and U.S. volatility data. Individual stocks and other equity markets can behave differently.

Check the displayed data timestamp before interpreting the results. The indicators update at different intervals; this overview is not a real-time guide to your next entry. The time you need for the analysis depends on your experience and the questions you still need to resolve.

How Market Radar is built

Market Radar combines fifteen indicators in four groups, bringing together different perspectives on the market. Some of these measures are related, so fifteen indicators do not provide fifteen independent confirmations.

The fifteen indicators sit in four groups:

Volatility — including expected price fluctuations. One example is the VIXThe VIX derives the market’s expected volatility over the next 30 days from prices of options on the S&P 500.. It measures expected fluctuations over the next 30 days, not price direction.
Trend — which way the market is moving and how broad the move is.
Fundamentals — the dashboard’s name for the group covering seasonality, sentiment, bonds, the U.S. dollar, financing conditions and the yield curve. It is not an assessment of financial statements or company valuations.
Futures curve — this group evaluates the VIX futures term structure. It shows current prices for different maturities and provides context on the volatility market. It does not predict where stock prices will be in the future.

Each indicator is assigned to one of seven signal-light states. Volatility and Trend each account for 30 percent of the overall score; Fundamentals and the Futures curve each account for 20 percent. Together, they form Market Radar. Read the overall score alongside the displayed classification, which ranges from strongly bearish through neutral to strongly bullish. These are assessments within this model, not probabilities of prices rising or falling. Oliver Sparing explains how individual indicators work, from volatilityVolatility describes how much the price of a market or security fluctuates over a given period. to the futures curveIf the prices of the different futures months are plotted one after another, starting with the contract that expires next, the result is the futures curve, also called the term structure curve., in this German-language podcast episode.

How to use Market Radar

Three practical points:

Start with the overall reading. Check the data timestamp, overall score and classification. Compare them with previous days, then examine the individual groups. The score alone does not justify a trade.
Look for clusters. Several similar readings may indicate a broader change. But check whether the indicators measure similar data. A single conflicting reading is not automatically meaningless, and several red readings do not prove that prices will fall.
An addition, not a replacement. Combine the market overview with your trading strategy. Entries, exits and position sizing need their own rules. The signal-light color does not determine your risk budget.

Record your assessment regularly and compare it later with what actually happened. Also note when the model did not fit your market or strategy. This helps you evaluate how useful the routine is for your decisions. Learn more about our approach in the Swing Trading programme (in German).

Frequently asked questions

What is a morning analysis in trading?

A morning analysis is a systematic assessment before you trade. You review selected indicators in a fixed order and record changes. It provides context for your decisions and replaces neither a trading strategy nor your risk management.

Is Market Radar a buy or sell signal?

No. Market Radar combines market data, with a focus on U.S. equities, into a model-based assessment. It does not predict certain price movements or determine your entry, exit or position size.

Is the morning analysis free?

Yes. Market Radar is publicly available on tradeneon.com at no cost and without registration. A good market snapshot should be available to everyone, not only professionals with expensive terminals.

Who is the morning analysis for?

Day traders and swing traders who want a structured assessment of the U.S. stock market. Individual stocks and other markets require additional analysis. The overview is not a real-time tool for your next entry.

See the morning analysis for yourself

Market Radar is public and free: a daily snapshot of the stock market, with no registration required.

View Market Radar

TradeNeon Market Radar chameleon in red, yellow and green

Stock market analysis morning analysis Market Radar Market analysis VIX trading psychology

Oliver Sparing

Founder & Head of Trading · TradeNeon

Sources and data reference

Checked on October 8, 2026. Structure, grouping and weights: TradeNeon Market Radar. VIX and expected volatility: Cboe. Recency bias: Investor.gov. Confirmation bias: MoneySense.

Oliver Sparing in an Interview: Order Flow and Swing Trading

by TradeNeon | Mar 29, 2026 | Trading, Video Blog

← All articles

Knowledge and hard work beat talent, and Oliver Sparing is proof of that. In day trading, his day begins with market analysis, only then does the order book confirm the plan, and in swing trading his portfolio is spread across several strategies. The interview at Insider Trading is about his path from commodities to order flow and the routine that grew out of it.

A long conversation about one path into trading, without shortcuts.Image: TradeNeon

The plan is set
before the trade.

The level comes from the market analysis. Whether the market reacts there, the order book shows.

Show contents

The video Oliver's path to trading Where a trade is worth considering At the level, the reaction is what counts In swing trading, the portfolio comes first Risk belongs in the plan What you can take away from the interview About the interview

Contents

Key points first

The trading day in order flow day trading begins with the market analysis: dark pool data, CME SPAN data, options data and dealer hedging produce zones in which institutional interest is likely to sit. At the level, the order book confirms the plan, and a setup should be statistically evaluable. In swing trading, the portfolio is spread across several strategies, CoT data and seasonality form a foundation, the entry comes from the chart, and risk stays conservative.

The video

The video is in German. For English audio, open the settings (gear icon) in the player and choose Audio track → English.

Playing the video connects to YouTube. Watch on YouTube

Chapters in the video 27

Click a timestamp to start the video at that point.

Video: Insider TradingMore videos from TradeNeon on our YouTube channel.

Oliver's path to trading

Oliver comes from the commodities field. Around 2010 and 2011, he engages with the exchange; professionally, he trades physical investment metals such as coins and bars at the time, not on an exchange.

He loses his first CFD account on the first evening, and that becomes the occasion to learn the exchange from the ground up. Swing trading and options trading follow, the first discipline in which things worked out for him. Later, day trading and order book and order flow trading are added, today his hobbyhorses. Alongside, he continues to trade options, including zero-DTE options, as well as futures, commodities and stocks.

He learned the craft of day trading on a trading floor in London. Oliver was no natural talent: he had to work hard for much of it, and it took a long time until he became profitable. Because he is an emotional person, he adapts positions and risk to his character.

Many younger people today start with CFDs and crypto. Whoever has no personal contact with the exchange first meets the loudest providers, like the advertising boards at the edge of the pitch in a football stadium. Back then, the path led to exchange-regulated instruments such as stocks, futures and options, because there you do not, when in doubt, trade against your own broker. Today, the choice of brokers is larger, and there are many good CFD and crypto brokers.

Where a trade is worth considering

The day in order flow day trading begins with an extensive market analysis. It is important to understand which setups you trade, and at least as important where you trade them. For that, Oliver evaluates several data sources every morning: data from dark pools, the CME's SPANThe risk model that futures exchanges such as the CME use to calculate margin requirements. A risk interval around the closing price can be derived from it. data, options data and dealer hedging data, plus the liquidity in the order book as well as volume profiles and market profiles.

The combination produces zones in which institutional interest is likely to sit. This gives the plan for the day: where trades come into question, where not (at least as important) and in which direction. “Market analysis is the be-all and end-all. You never want to trade somewhere in the middle of nowhere,” says Oliver Sparing. He still does the analysis by hand. TradeNeon's software is a mirror of it: it brings the levels into the charts of various platforms.

Dealer hedging

At the center is dealer hedgingMarket makers hedge their options positions in the underlying and adjust this hedge continuously.. On the other side of an options trade usually sits a market makerMarket participants who continuously quote buy and sell prices and want to live off the spread rather than the direction of price.. They do not want to buy cheap and sell higher but to profit from the spread and get rid of the trade again immediately. If that does not work, they have directional risk and neutralize it in the underlying, for example in the S&P 500 future. Because the option does not move in the same rhythm as the underlying, they have to adjust this hedge continuously. Models can be used to estimate where market makers are positioned and under what circumstances they would have to buy or sell.

CoT data are relevant in the medium to longer term and bring no edge in intraday trading. Dealer hedging, by contrast, offers possible price zones for the trading day. It remains a working hypothesis: market makers have great influence, but the other market participants know their constraints as well. Whether a zone holds only becomes clear at the level. Placing a limit order blindly at a level and hoping for the best does not work for that reason. A stop has to fit the day's volatility, and an unexpected piece of news can run it over. That is why you need a setup at the level.

Dealer hedging course

Understand dealer hedging from the ground up

Learn about options, the Greeks and how possible hedging areas are calculated. The course uses examples from options, stocks and futures. It is currently taught in German.

Explore the course in German

What happens in the order book

When the market comes to a previously defined level, Oliver looks into the order book. Heatmap and classic order book both have their use; he works a lot with the heatmapThe heatmap shows the order book over time: where limit orders sat and how large they were. and combines the two views. What he watches is how liquidity shifts, where orders are filled, where new ones come in, where rebalancing takes place and how the delta changes. The order book is meant to confirm the plan made beforehand.

There is no clear trigger in day trading that says “buy.” What you see in the order book has to be interpreted. The point is not to get lost in market understanding and to end up with a repeatable setup whose statistical edge you have evaluated. More aggressive entries and waiting for more confirmation both have their price: whoever waits for more confirmation gives up some of the reward-to-risk ratio. The range can become extreme, all the way to unprofitability. That is why statistics matter: whether a setup has an edge only becomes clear through evaluation.

With AI, it is now conceivable to implement such strategies algorithmically, with caution. One advantage in discretionary day trading, however, can lie precisely in the room for human interpretation, which makes you independent of the classic algorithms in the market.

The five factors in order flow

Passive market participants How do limit orders shift in the order book, where are they filled, where does spoofingLarge orders that are placed in the order book and removed again before execution in order to influence the market. take place?
Active market participants Who moves the market with market orders, and is there a shift in delta?
Market and auction speed This is easier to observe in the classic order book. Does the market start to “wriggle”?
Order flow events AbsorptionLarge amounts of aggressive orders are taken up by limit orders without price moving on., stop run, exhaustion, sweeps.
Price action In the microstructure, it is at least as relevant as on a daily or monthly chart.

What is decisive is that these processes take place at price zones that are relevant for institutions. Only a small part of what constantly happens in the market is usable. Beginners especially see an opportunity around every corner after the first concepts such as absorption or iceberg orders.

At the level, the reaction is what counts

Oliver trades the US session, above all the first one to two hours after the open in New York and the last two trading hours. He trades almost exclusively the ES future, the S&P 500 future. In the past, it was also the gold and crude oil futures. For the ES, he has the most data that give him an additional edge.

First, he looks at his picture of the market: hourly and four-hour chart, which higher-level market phase the market is in, how it reacted to his levels. Then he works out a plan and sets an alert at the next relevant price level. A common beginner mistake is to sit in front of it and drive yourself crazy because you see an opportunity around every corner. He waits patiently until the market comes to the zone and then watches the order book.

For that, he uses a classic candlestick chart on 5 minutes, “a good old 5-minute chart.” A 1-minute or 15-minute chart is just as fine. On top come a market profile and a volume profile to follow auction methods and market structure. In practice, he works with a combination of Bookmap and TradingView. For order book data, you need live market data from the exchange and software such as Bookmap or Quantower, combined with a data feed.

Oliver steers clear of news releases. He is no news trader but knows there are strong ones. Shortly before important US economic data, market makers pull liquidity out of the order book: in the heatmap, a wall of orders suddenly disappears. A few minutes after the release, the liquidity gradually comes back, and then he trades again. Classic order book trading largely leaves the realm of economics anyway; market mechanics play the role here. The longer term a trade is meant to be, the more fundamental factors count.

In swing trading, the portfolio comes first

Order flow day trading takes a longer familiarization period, and you have to confirm for yourself that your own approach has an edge, ideally through statistics. Whoever has not proven for themselves that it works has a hard time psychologically, because doubts keep coming back. In swing trading, things are often calmer, and approaches are easier to replicate and teach. Anyone who decides on a day trading programme also brings a certain stress factor into their life and should have a great interest in the markets. “I am absolutely no fan of this credo, trade like a machine. We are not machines, we are human beings. We have emotions, and we have to learn to deal with them,” says Oliver Sparing. When he notices that he is reacting more emotionally, he does not day trade in that phase.

Several strategies instead of one

Oliver builds his trading portfolio like a long-term stock portfolio: with diversification, meaning with several strategies that correlate as little as possible. Whoever relies on only one can go through a bad phase over a longer period. He has seen this himself with classic income strategies using options on the ES future and the SPX. For a start, however, it is important to learn one strategy properly first and to broaden out only afterwards. In swing trading, he works with four building blocks.

Commodity trading with CoT data The theoretical foundation is CoT data, seasonal patterns and term structure, combined with a setup that is logical in terms of market technicals.
Strategy on the 4-hour chart It combines market structure and auction logic with Fibonacci retracements.
Three stock strategies His own indicators pre-filter stocks by various criteria. He then enters on momentum or on pullbacks.
Options strategies Options strategies are the fourth building block.

Swing trading is his “bread and butter.” How day and swing trading are distributed among clients fluctuates: sometimes there is more interest in one, sometimes in the other. Some add day trading after a while; others notice in day trading that it stresses them too much and switch to swing trading.

CoT data and own indicators

In commodities, CoT data are a base filter, comparable to the market analysis in day trading. Oliver has developed his own indicators that go beyond the classic Larry Williams index. The index looks at the net position, and a purely absolute view of positioning can say little. The data are therefore put in relation to total open interestThe number of all open contracts in a futures market., producers and processors are looked at separately, and the positioning is also put in relation to price. On top of that, it counts how many institutions hold a position: a high open interest held by only a few is less meaningful than one spread across many. The absolute view runs as a dry powderAn indicator of how much room a positioning still has before it is historically stretched. indicator; the relative one through an OBOS framework.

Alone, this usually gives no edge. It gives a good fundamental starting position in which a suitable setup then makes sense. Because CoT trading is usually trading against a strong trend, and a trend is more likely to continue than to reverse, it takes patience and a sensible setup. The wait is for a prominent volume peak in the volume profile and for the market to break out of it against the trend direction for the first time. The value of CoT data lies less in finding good entries than in finding trades with a lot of potential in the desired direction when the market moves. How CoT data work in principle is explained in detail in the video article on the ATAS webinar.

On the question of which trader group counts: the commercials have the most expertise about their market, but their intention has become less clear because they speculate more today than they used to. With managed moneySpeculative large investors in the disaggregated CoT report, such as hedge funds., the intention is clearer. In the evaluations the TradeNeon team has done over the years, the positioning of this speculative group showed the highest correlation with price. The thought behind dry powder: if everyone who was historically long is already long, who is left to buy?

Seasonality

On seasonality in commodities, the indicators determine the patterns on the basis of adjusted contracts (back-adjustmentPrices of old contracts are adjusted for the roll gaps so that a continuous chart results.), because roll gaps between contracts would otherwise distort a pattern. At the start of the year, the patterns of all relevant markets are reviewed, determined algorithmically, ten years back. Interesting are patterns lasting on average about ten trading days, up to a month. With longer ones, you have to expect corrections. Over the ten-year period, the market should have moved in the direction of the seasonality in at least nine of the last ten years, and the evaluation is market-specific: a volatile market cannot be equated with a calm one.

A seasonality is one fundamental factor among several and, just like CoT data, not a pure entry trigger. What is sought are entries based on auction logic, with a chart-technical entry. Today Oliver also trades against a seasonality now and then when everything else speaks for a dream setup, which he would not have done a few years ago. For Oliver, seasonalities in commodities play a smaller role today than they did a few years ago.

Risk belongs in the plan

On risk, position size always stays very conservative, and Oliver has never leveraged massively, in day trading as in swing trading. His margin is rarely used up far. Because the risk per trade is small, he can have several positions open in parallel in the stock strategies.

“I think trading is a craft. Anyone who is interested and brings a little passion can learn it, up to the point where you earn money with it and are profitable,” says Oliver Sparing. Whether someone wants to live from it alone is a question of type. Oliver would not advise anyone to rely on trading alone too early in their career. A second source of income is entirely legitimate.

As a teacher, he enjoys the work because he can help others move forward. His coaches have all gone through his programme.

At the end, Oliver gives viewers this to take along: “Be patient. The path is worth it, but it can be quite long and rocky, and that is entirely normal. Make sure you stay at it with joy and stay in the demo account as long as possible to gather experience.” Trading has a lot to do with experience and with your own character.

What you can take away from the interview

The place comes before the setup. First, you determine in the market analysis where institutional interest is likely to sit. Without this plan, a trade has no point of reference.
The order book confirms the plan. At the level, it is not the mark alone that decides but what happens in the order book.
Statistics show whether a setup works. Whoever has not confirmed for themselves that their approach has an edge will have a hard time psychologically.
Data such as CoT and seasonality are a foundation. They give a starting position. The entry comes from the setup in the chart.

“What many do not want to admit at the beginning of their trading career is that, as traders, we are first and foremost mathematicians and statisticians.”
Oliver Sparing in the interview at Insider Trading (translated from German)

About the interview

The interview appeared on March 29, 2026 on the YouTube channel Insider Trading. It is held in German; on YouTube, you can switch on YouTube's subtitle translation. Everything stated here is Oliver's personal experience and assessment from the conversation. The channel points out that the video is not investment advice and that trading involves considerable risks. Oliver is also a guest with other partners; you can find all appearances on our guest appearances page.

Day trading programme

How do you build your own trading routine?

A routine like Oliver's, from market analysis to the order book, is something you build step by step. In our day trading programme, you learn how. The programme is currently offered in German.

Day trading programme (German)

Frequently asked questions

What does a trading day in order flow day trading look like?

It starts with the market analysis: dark pools, SPAN data, options data and dealer hedging produce zones in which institutional interest is likely to sit. When the market comes to such a level, the order book is watched and confirmation of the plan is sought there.

Are CoT data alone enough for a trade?

Usually not. CoT data give a good fundamental starting position but no entry. For that, you need a setup that the market forms at the level, for example the breakout from a volume peak against the trend direction.

What software and data do you need for order flow day trading?

For order book data, you need live market data from the exchange and software such as Bookmap or Quantower in combination with a data feed. In practice, Oliver works with a combination of Bookmap and TradingView.

Is there trading around news releases?

Oliver steers clear of news around important US economic data. Shortly beforehand, market makers pull liquidity out of the order book; a few minutes after the release it comes back, and then he trades again.

InterviewOrder FlowSwing Trading

Marnie Aramruck

Founder & Head of Brand & Psychology · TradeNeon

Marnie Aramruck came to trading by an unusual route: ten years self-employed in event management, marketing and design, before turning to the psychology behind decisions. As a master emotion coach and resilience trainer, she now works on a single question: what traders need in order to stay calm and clear even under pressure. Her subject is not the chart, but the person in front of it.

Swing Trading Alongside Work: Time, Capital and Risk

by Simon Reichert | Dec 10, 2025 | Swing Trading

← All articles

This article explains what swing trading involves, why it can fit alongside a job, how much time and capital it needs, and which strategies TradeNeon teaches. The swing trading programme allows around 30 minutes for the daily trading routine; learning takes additional time. The programme is currently offered in German.

A daily routine gives the market a place in your schedule.Image: TradeNeon

Your trades run
while you live your day.

Swing trading alongside work, with a defined daily routine.

Show contents

What is swing trading?Fitting it around work Time, capital and returns Approaches and systems The practical conclusion

Contents

What is swing trading?Fitting it around work Time, capital and returns Approaches and systems The practical conclusion

After a long day at work, at university or in training, you come home. You briefly open the markets and immediately find yourself drawn in again.

Then the thought arrives: “Surely I don't have time for this.” Trading means extensive research, constant focus and endless screen time, doesn't it?

Many people imagine trading as a full-time occupation, with hours spent studying charts and anxiously clicking. It is understandable that it can seem out of reach when you have a job.

There is another way to approach it. Trading need not be frantic when you choose a suitable method. One discipline in particular relies on planning, patience and structure rather than constant presence: swing trading.

What swing trading means

Swing trading is a form of trading in which positions are held for several days or even weeks. The aim is to take part in medium-term price movements, the “swings” in a market.

Unlike day trading, where trades are often closed within minutes, swing trading seeks to trade larger market phases: moves that develop over several days and may show a clearer structure.

This can make the routine more predictable with less screen time. Swing traders do not watch the market constantly. They look for setups with a suitable risk–reward ratioThe potential gain compared with the planned loss on a trade. A potential gain of USD 100 against a planned loss of USD 50 gives a ratio of 2:1; it says nothing about the chance of either outcome.. Decisions are often made outside trading hours, in the evening or at weekends.

Swing traders often analyse four-hour or daily charts. Their analysis uses many of the same principles as short-term trading, but over a longer horizon. Support and resistance, trend lines and Fibonacci retracements can all play a part.

There are often fewer signals. Some swing traders take only a few positions a week, others only a handful a month. The sensible number depends on the system and market conditions; careful preparation does not replace risk control.

Here is a brief comparison to make the difference clearer:

Criterion	Day Trading	Swing Trading
Holding period	Minutes to hours	Days to weeks
Analysis interval	One to 15 minutes	Four-hour to daily chart
Trading frequency	Several trades per day	Fewer trades per week
Managing open positions	During the trading session	At defined daily times

Swing trading is not a compromise between day trading and investing; it is a discipline in its own right. It combines analysis with strategic patience. It can suit people with jobs when the daily routine and the risk fit their lives.

How it fits around a job

Many swing traders follow a weekly rhythm. They often do their main analysis at the weekend: selecting markets, preparing setups and setting alerts. During the week, they put their plan into practice and check whether positions need attention.

That is what can make swing trading workable alongside everyday life. The market continues while you do other things. You check your positions at defined times instead of intervening constantly, while retaining responsibility for the risk.

There can also be a psychological advantage. Watching fewer price changes may give you more distance from each move and help you avoid impulsive decisions. Patience and discipline are still required.

Swing trading uses less screen time than day trading, but it requires the same care with analysis, position size and risk.

The discipline lies in preparing well, rather than being present at every moment. Trading needs to fit into your life, rather than the other way around.

Time, capital and returns

The current TradeNeon swing trading programme gives concrete figures for its six systems. The programme itself is currently offered in German.

Daily routine

30 min

for all six systems; learning time comes on top

Starting capital

EUR 3,000

for stock systems; options systems from EUR 10,000

Returns

10–40 %

an ambitious annual-average orientation after the learning year, never a promise

Time. TradeNeon budgets about 30 minutes per day for the routine across its six systems. A single system may take less. During the first months, videos, practice, live sessions and learning the software add time. The half-hour figure is not the total time needed to learn trading.

Capital. TradeNeon states starting capital of EUR 3,000 for the stock systems and EUR 10,000 for the options systems. That capital must not be needed for living costs. You still set a position size and loss limit for every trade.

Returns. TradeNeon describes 10–40% average annual return as an ambitious orientation from its practice for well-trained traders after the learning year, applying tested systems and risk rules consistently. It is not a forecast for an individual reader. Losses, including loss years, are possible. The first year is for learning without a return expectation. See the real-money performance and its context.

Keep the numbers in context

Results depend on the system, market conditions and execution. Neither a historical result nor a risk rule guarantees a future return.

Approaches used in swing trading

Swing trading involves recognising recurring market structures and using them systematically. The aim is to check selected setups against defined rules, rather than catch every move. A system should specify the entry, exit and risk before a trade is placed. Even a well-founded trade can lose.

TradeNeon continues to develop approaches for different market mechanisms. The following examples cover commodity data, Fibonacci zones, options and stock momentum. They represent different disciplines; none is profitable in every market phase.

Trading commodities: how positioning data can reveal trends

Commodity markets rarely move without a reason. Changes in the behaviour of large market participants can be behind major price moves. TradeNeon's commodity system combines fundamental data with chart analysis.

What counts as fundamental data? We examine several kinds of information:

CoT dataWeekly aggregated positioning reports published by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission from positions reported by firms. They describe positioning, not a stand-alone entry signal.: reported positions, grouped and published by the CFTC.
Seasonality: recurring patterns at certain times of the year.
Futures curvesThe prices of futures contracts for the same underlying market across different expiry months.: prices for different contract months in the same market.
Market dynamics: how prices develop as conditions change.

When large market participants change their positions, CoT data may reveal a shift. We observe these changes and look for confirmation in the chart before a setup becomes relevant.

Our aim is to assess medium-term moves in liquid commodity markets such as gold, oil and copper according to the system's rules and, where appropriate, take part in them.

In the training programme we use Futures Insights to prepare CoT data, seasonality and other market information for analysis. The trader interprets the data and makes the trading decision.

The CFTC publishes CoT reports on reportable futures positions. They show positioning, but are not an entry signal by themselves.

Fibonacci system: finding structure in a market move

Trends rarely move in a straight line. A move can be followed by a correction. Some systems look for an entry there, but a retracement cannot guarantee that the trend will continue.

How do we identify a potential reversal zone? We combine classic Fibonacci retracements with supply and demand. The volume profile is an important part of that analysis: it shows where trading activity was concentrated and which price areas may matter.

When price and volume tell a coherent story, a possible zone for trend continuation can become visible. Any position still follows a defined risk and exit rule.

The point is to assess market structure instead of reacting to a line drawn on the chart alone. Corrections can create opportunities, but the setup can fail.

Historical chart example. Silver futures on a four-hour chart with Fibonacci zones, a volume profile and moving-average lines; not a current trade recommendation.

Options: understanding premiums and risk

Options strategies can consider volatility, trend and fundamental data. An option premium is not predictable profit: market moves, time to expiry and execution can all lead to losses.

For example, an optionA time-limited contract: the buyer acquires a right for a premium, while the seller takes on a contractual obligation. The two sides carry different risks. can refer to a broad stock index such as the S&P 500. Before entry, we assess market conditions and set the risk and exit rules.

Time-value decay can be one part of a sold-options strategy. Collecting a premium does not automatically limit the possible loss.

A rule-based system defines when a position is opened, adjusted or closed. Loss phases are possible even with such rules.

Current offer

The Lab of Trades currently describes the Opening Put in its Argon options module. Its availability and rules are on the product page. An option premium is never a guaranteed return.

Stock momentum: identifying strength and following trends

MomentumThe tendency for a price move to continue for a time. It can reverse and is not a prediction by itself. is central to this approach. Many investors think of the stock market like a supermarket: buy as cheaply as possible and wait for a higher price.

Stocks are not consumer goods, however. Their value does not depend on how cheap they appear. Buying a falling stock is a bet on a reversal, yet there are often reasons for the low price. A lower price alone does not make a share attractive, just as a recent rise cannot guarantee further gains.

Rising prices can signal strength. TradeNeon's stock-momentum system looks for shares outperforming the wider market and assesses whether that strength offers a setup within its rules.

Several indicators check whether a move fits the system or looks more like a short-lived excess. A share becomes interesting only when trend, momentum and market conditions align. Even then, the move can end.

The idea is to measure relative strength and trade by fixed rules while it persists. The system includes an exit when momentum weakens, though a timely exit is never guaranteed.

The practical conclusion

Swing trading is neither half-hearted trading nor a shortcut to quick success. It is a considered way to understand markets and act with structure. Learning it shows how much depends on preparation, patience and careful execution rather than constant activity.

A fixed daily routine can be helpful for people with jobs. You can plan decisions and check positions at set times; market risk remains between those checks.

With experience, you can assess your process better and put individual results into perspective. Whether that produces a long-term profit also depends on market conditions and consistent risk management.

That brings us to the end. Thank you for reading, and I wish you good trades.

Until next time,
Simon

Frequently asked questions

What is swing trading?

It is an approach that typically holds positions for days or weeks to take part in medium-term market moves. The holding period does not remove market risk.

Can I swing trade alongside a job?

It can fit around work if you can follow a defined daily routine and give decisions your attention. TradeNeon budgets about 30 minutes per day for its six systems, with extra learning time during the programme.

How much capital do I need?

TradeNeon states starting capital of EUR 3,000 for its stock systems and EUR 10,000 for its options systems. Use only capital you can afford to lose.

What returns can I expect?

Do not treat a published range as a personal expectation. TradeNeon's 10–40% annual-average range is an ambitious orientation for trained traders after the learning year, not a guarantee. Losses remain possible.

What is different from day trading?

Day trading generally closes trades within one session and requires attention during that session. Swing trading holds positions longer and uses planned checks, while accepting overnight exposure.

Check the market context

Market Radar brings 15 indicators into one view of the broader stock-market environment. Use it to inform your own analysis, not as a trading signal.

Explore Market Radar

Market Radar chameleon with red, yellow and green light across its head

Swing TradingTrading alongside workRisk managementOptionsFibonacciCoT data

Simon Reichert

Swing trading coach · TradeNeon

Simon Reichert is a swing trading coach at TradeNeon. He studied International Business Management, worked in finance and auditing, and has traded actively since 2022. His focus is swing trading, the broader market context and risk management.

Expirations in Dealer Hedging: Which Time Horizon Counts

by Oliver Sparing | Nov 13, 2025 | Options Trading, Video Blog

← All articles

The same hedging data looks different depending on which expirations you include. For a day trader, different data often matters than for someone holding positions over several days, because options that expire today have to be hedged faster than options with two weeks to run. How vanna zones from the zero-DTE data can be built into the daily plan is shown by examples from the talk at Volland Refined.

Which expirations matter depends on how long you stay in the market.Image: TradeNeon

The time horizon
determines the data.

Which expirations are relevant for you depends on how long you hold positions.

Show contents

The video Which expirations count for you?The day trading setup with the Volland charts The daily plan: the overnight session first Vanna clusters: bull and bear zones Example: S&P and Nasdaq futures from the previous day Tracking the boundaries during the day The week sets the room to move Questions and conversation What you can take away from the talk About the talk

Contents

Key points first

Which expirations count depends on your own time horizon: anyone trading within a single day will not rely only on the chart with all expirations, because options that expire today have to be hedged faster by market makers. One possible setup for the day trading horizon is the zero-DTE data, supplemented by the vanna exposure of the next five trading days including today, with a focus on strikes with high exposure, the outer boundaries of the distribution and connected vanna clusters. The data replace neither the analysis in the order book nor do they say for certain how price will react.

The video

Playing the video connects to YouTube. Watch on YouTube

Chapters in the video 14

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Video: Wizard of Ops, Volland RefinedMore videos from TradeNeon on our YouTube channel.

Which expirations count for you?

The question Oliver Sparing hears most often from his clients: which data should they look at, and which time horizon takes priority? The dealer hedging concept itself is complex enough, and the choice of data comes on top.

As a thought experiment, picture two vannaOne of the so-called Greeks in options trading that influence the hedging activity of market makers. exposure charts of the same market side by side. One shows only zero-DTEOptions with zero days to expiration: they expire on the day of trading., the other the monthly exposure or even all expirations. The first thing that stands out is the difference in average exposure per strikeThe price the right of the option refers to.: because the longer period includes more data, the absolute sum per strike is clearly higher there.

For a classic day trader or scalper, the chart with all expirations alone is usually not enough, because entirely different forces are at work there. If a market makerA market participant who provides liquidity to the market and takes the other side of trades in return. has built up high exposure at a strike and the option expires today, they have to hedge their delta today. They therefore have to trade faster and more aggressively than with an option that only expires in two weeks.

What matters, then, are the hedging data that fit your own trading horizon, meaning the data with the biggest impact within exactly that time frame. The better the choice fits, the more you can get out of a platform like Volland.

The day trading setup with the Volland charts

Oliver Sparing sees himself as a classic day trader and usually holds his positions between 10 minutes and two hours. He does not trade the future directly, though, but zero-DTE options on the S&P 500. “I personally find it much more comfortable to enter my trades in the zero-DTE markets in the S&P,” he says, “and it gives me more advantages when it comes to time decay.”

The screen layout in the talk: at the top left, the zero-DTE gammaOne of the so-called Greeks in options trading that influence the hedging activity of market makers. chart, next to it the zero-DTE charmOne of the so-called Greeks in options trading that influence the hedging activity of market makers. chart. Below are the charts for the actual trading decisions: the zero-DTE chart and the cumulative version. On the right is the vanna exposure for the next five trading days including today, also individually and cumulatively. At the bottom, two new Volland widgets have been added, whose results are to be evaluated over the coming weeks.

The daily plan: the overnight session first

The first analysis of the day happens in the overnight session, and not only because of the Dubai location. “In my experience, the overnight session provides an extremely reliable outlook on the daily biasThe basic direction with which you go into the trading day.,” says Oliver Sparing. The base analysis rests solely on the data before the open; during the day, you watch how the exposure develops.

The exposure charts are read for four features.

Unusually high exposure Strikes with unusually high exposure can act like magnets or levels of interest. At these prices, it pays to look specifically into the order book and the order flow for possible entries.
Shift over time How the exposure shifts over time only becomes important in the cash session.
Outer boundaries This is where significant exposure ends. The curves used to be clearly narrower there and have become wider over the last few weeks.
Connected vanna clusters They form bull and bear zones, more on that in the next section.

The outer boundaries can be treated as a kind of expected move boundary, especially with zero DTE. In the example shown, the exposure drops abruptly below the 6,750 strike, in both the zero-DTE gamma chart and the vanna chart. From this, one can assume that informed market participants traded options mainly up to these strikes, and based on the current data it appears relatively unlikely that price will move beyond that range. These overnight boundaries are marked as strong “lines in the sand” on the chart. The working assumption behind this: when price reaches these areas, it usually meets support or resistance, depending on the situation and the context.

Six Volland charts for the SPX: top row zero-DTE gamma, zero-DTE charm and vanna for the next five trading days; bottom row zero-DTE vanna and the cumulative vanna curves. Green bars show positive, red bars negative exposure per strike. — Oliver’s Volland view of the example day: top left zero-DTE gamma, bottom left zero-DTE vanna. Below 6,750 the exposure drops off in both charts. From minute 20:30. **Image: Wizard of Ops / Volland Refined**

Vanna clusters: bull and bear zones

“My most important filters are the connected vanna clusters,” says Oliver Sparing. Internally, they are called vanna bull zones and vanna bear zones; the terms are not entirely precise in every market environment.

The logic behind them, using the example of a green zone above price: if customers sell calls there, dealers end up long out-of-the-money calls, and to hedge their delta, they sell the underlying. This creates positive vanna exposure. Vanna describes how delta changes when implied volatility changes. With a stable spot-vol relationshipThe relationship between price and implied volatility: in the large stock indices, volatility usually falls when price rises., volatility should fall as price rises. The delta of the calls then falls, the dealer has to scale back their hedge, and because this position is short, they buy back. That has a bullish effect and makes it easier for the market to rise.

Other Greeks also play a role, and the spot-vol relationship is not always intact. TradeNeon’s own statistical evaluations over the years nevertheless show a strong correlation between bull zones and rising prices and between bear zones and falling prices. The video gives no numbers for this.

Dealer hedging course

Understand dealer hedging from the ground up

Learn about options, the Greeks and how possible hedging areas are calculated. The course uses examples from options, stocks and futures. It is currently taught in German.

Explore the course in German

Example: S&P and Nasdaq futures from the previous day

This example shows the analysis of a single day, not a general rule for price. On the previous day's S&P 500 future (ES) chart, the market first rotated around the weekly VWAPVolume weighted average price: the volume-weighted average price within a time period. at the start of the cash session, then price rose. As it ran into the red bear zone, implied volatility fell because of the rising prices. Because negative vanna sat above price, dealers sold in this reading, and resistance formed. From the zones, it could be inferred that the market would not run much further after breaking above the previous day's high. On that day, the overnight levels held.

S&P 500 future (ES) on the example day: after the rotation, price rises into the red bear zone and makes little further progress. From minute 24:19. Image: Wizard of Ops / Volland Refined

The edges of the zones are of particular interest. In the previous day's Nasdaq future (NQ), price ran into the red bear zone in the pre-session and was sold through it. At the lower edge, price found support, and the market turned exactly at the CME SPANThe CME's risk measurement method, from which the recommended initial margin for futures also derives. risk interval. A rule of thumb, not a fixed rule: once the market has crossed a zone completely, it often runs back through the same zone in the opposite direction on the same day or shortly after, as here in the NQ future.

Five-minute chart of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini future with vanna zones: price falls through the dark red zone, turns at its lower edge near a blue line and then rises back through the same zone. — Nasdaq future (NQ) on the example day: price runs down through the red bear zone, turns at its lower edge, where the cursor points to the blue CME SPAN level, and runs back through the same zone. From minute 25:12. **Image: Wizard of Ops / Volland Refined**

The sequence in short: first the lines in the sand are marked, a daily bias is built, and in the overnight session it is decided what and where to trade. When the market approaches a level, possible entries are checked in the order book according to this plan. If the vanna shifts during the day, the live data counts, and the plan is adapted.

Tracking the boundaries during the day

The outer boundaries of vanna and charm are drawn into the chart roughly every 30 minutes, and that alone shows a lot about the shift in dynamics. An example: the market moves in a range, and the boundaries of the vanna exposure are close together. If the upper boundary then moves up clearly without the market following right away: “That is a strong bullish sign for me,” says Oliver Sparing. If price then breaks through a level, it is worth checking the order flow for a pullback to the breakout level.

Shifts in these boundaries can be a useful pointer to market moves about to come. Conditions have also changed recently: the vanna range has become wider, while charm and gamma have become narrower in comparison.

The week sets the room to move

In swing trading, Oliver mainly trades commodities. There, he keeps an eye on the vanna exposure of the coming week. It does not determine which direction he trades, but how much room he gives his trades. If the weekly chart fits what the zero-DTE data show, he holds trades clearly longer and builds positions over time. If the two contradict each other, for example bullish in zero DTE and bearish in the weekly chart, he takes shorter trades and manages them more actively.

That is the topic of the talk in a nutshell: different expirations provide different information, and only their interplay shows how much room a trade has.

Questions and conversation

In the conversation with the hosts, the topic also comes up of how dealer hedging data behave for options on futures. The hosts point out differences, for example that crude oil futures have monthly expirations and that statements for the first month cannot simply be transferred to later months. The guest mainly asks questions on this.

From the chat comes the question of whether dealers hedge their positions in the futures market instead of in the zero-DTE options. One of the hosts confirms it: dealers hedge options on the S&P 500 with the ES future. First, though, dealers try to get rid of their inventory, for example through corresponding prices. Oliver agrees: that is what futures are made for.

What you can take away from the talk

The time horizon determines the data. As a day trader, you look at different expirations than someone holding positions over days. The chart with all expirations shows higher sums but is not necessarily the right one.
Four features are in focus. Strikes with high exposure, their shift over time, the outer boundaries of the distribution and connected vanna clusters.
A plan before the open. Levels and bias take shape in the overnight session, and at the level the order book gets a close look.
The data are pointers, not certainties. Other Greeks and the spot-vol relationship play a part, and markets change. That is why the plan adapts to the live data.

“In my experience, it is extremely important for traders to look at the hedging data that is truly relevant for their own trading horizon, meaning the data that has the greatest effect in that time frame.”
Oliver Sparing at Volland Refined

About the talk

The talk ran on November 12, 2025 at Volland Refined, an all-day live event by Volland with several conversations, and is on the YouTube channel Wizard of Ops. Volland provides data on the positioning of options dealers. You can find more appearances on our guest appearances page. A basic introduction to the topic is given by the article Dealer Hedging: How It Works.

Level of Interest

Where do dealer hedging levels sit?

Level of Interest draws dealer hedging levels into your chart as potential price areas. You assess how the market trades there.

Explore Level of Interest

Frequently asked questions

Which expirations matter for day traders?

That depends on your own time horizon. One possible setup is the zero-DTE data, supplemented by the vanna exposure of the next five trading days including today; that is how Oliver Sparing works, who holds positions between 10 minutes and two hours. A chart with all expirations shows higher sums but also depicts forces that can count less directly for trading within a single day.

Why do market makers have to trade faster with zero DTE?

If an option expires on the same day, the market maker has to hedge their delta today. With an option that only expires in two weeks, they do not have to trade as fast and aggressively.

What are vanna bull and bear zones?

That is what connected areas of positive or negative vanna exposure are called, in which rising or falling prices tend to be expected. The terms do not apply exactly in every market environment, and other influences play a part.

Do dealers hedge options on the S&P 500 with the ES future?

Yes, that is what futures are made for. First, though, dealers try to get rid of their inventory through corresponding prices.

Dealer HedgingOptionsVolland

Oliver Sparing

Founder & Head of Trading · TradeNeon

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Expirations in Dealer Hedging: Which Time Horizon Counts

The video

Which expirations count for you?

The day trading setup with the Volland charts

The daily plan: the overnight session first

Vanna clusters: bull and bear zones

Example: S&P and Nasdaq futures from the previous day

Tracking the boundaries during the day

The week sets the room to move

Questions and conversation

What you can take away from the talk

About the talk

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